煤炭市场变化对榆林经济发展的影响及对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 17:47

本文选题：煤炭市场　切入点：经济发展　出处：《西安科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：榆林市位于陕西省北部，是我国重要的煤炭能源基地，被称为“中国的科威特”，煤炭经济产值占到了整个榆林工业产值的一半，近年来得益于煤炭市场的繁荣，榆林市经济增长速度每年排在陕西省各市前列。但是进入2012年，伴随着全国煤炭市场的不景气，榆林市煤炭市场急转直下，对榆林经济发展带来巨大影响。为此，本文在国内外相关研究现状进行综述的基础上，采用实证研究方法，分析了煤炭市场变化对榆林经济发展的影响，主要的研究工作与结论如下：（1）分析了榆林煤炭市场变化情况，对2006年-2014年榆林市煤炭价格季度数据进行分析，构建了煤炭价格预测模型，并对2015年榆林市煤炭价格进行了预测。（2）通过对2006年-2013年榆林市煤炭价格与同期榆林市生产总值、规模以上工业总产值、地方财政收入进行趋势分析，初步判定榆林市煤炭价格波动与榆林市生产总值、规模以上工业总产值、地方财政收入存在一定的关系；进而，通过对煤炭价格与生产总值、规模以上工业总产值、地方财政收入的季度数据分析，，得出结论：煤炭价格的波动分别能够解释生产总值波动的23.9%，规模以上工业总产值的26.2%，地方财政收入的19.4%。证实了榆林市煤炭价格波动对榆林市三个主要经济指标存在正相关关系。（3）提出促进榆林经济可持续发展的对策建议，包括：坚定以煤为主的发展信念不动摇；培育大型煤炭企业集团；清理不合理税费，减轻煤企负担；延伸产业链，提升抗风险能力；打通外运通道，解决瓶颈制约；促进煤炭产业由依赖资源向依靠科技转变；大力调整产业结构，使产业结构更加合理；加强煤炭行业信息统计分析，增强对煤炭经济发展的预见性；加大金融对榆林经济转型升级的支持力度；设立煤炭价格调控基金。本文的研究成果对于政府科学分析煤炭市场变化对榆林经济发展的影响，制定促进榆林经济可持续发展的相关政策具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Located in the northern part of Shaanxi Province, Yulin City is an important coal energy base in China, known as "Kuwait of China." the coal economic output value accounts for half of the industrial output value of the whole Yulin province. In recent years, it has benefited from the prosperity of the coal market. The economic growth rate of Yulin City ranks among the leading cities in Shaanxi Province every year. But in 2012, with the depression of the national coal market, the coal market of Yulin City has turned sharply down, which has a huge impact on the economic development of Yulin City. Based on the review of domestic and foreign related research, this paper analyzes the impact of coal market changes on the economic development of Yulin by using empirical research methods. The main research work and conclusions are as follows:. This paper analyzes the change of coal market in Yulin, analyzes the quarterly data of coal price in Yulin from 2006 to 2014, constructs a coal price forecasting model, and forecasts the coal price in Yulin in 2015. (2) through the trend analysis of the coal price in Yulin city from 2006 to 2013, the GDP of Yulin city, the gross industrial output value above the scale, and the local financial revenue, the fluctuation of coal price and the gross domestic product of Yulin city are preliminarily determined. There is a certain relationship between the total industrial output value above scale and local fiscal revenue. Furthermore, through the analysis of quarterly data on coal price and gross domestic product, gross industrial output value above scale and local fiscal revenue, It is concluded that the fluctuation of coal price can explain the fluctuation of gross domestic product (GDP) 23.9, industrial output value above scale 26.2and local fiscal revenue 19.4. it is proved that the fluctuation of coal price in Yulin has positive correlation with the three main economic indexes of Yulin. 3) put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the sustainable economic development of Yulin, including: unshakeable belief in coal-based development; fostering large coal enterprise groups; clearing up unreasonable taxes and fees, lightening the burden of coal enterprises; extending the industrial chain, To promote the ability to resist risks; to open the shipping channels to solve the bottleneck constraints; to promote the coal industry to change from relying on resources to relying on science and technology; to vigorously adjust the industrial structure to make the industrial structure more reasonable; to strengthen the statistical analysis of information in the coal industry, To enhance the predictability of coal economic development; to increase financial support for the economic transformation and upgrading of Yulin; to set up a coal price control fund. The research results of this paper have certain reference value for the government to scientifically analyze the influence of the coal market changes on the economic development of Yulin and to formulate the relevant policies to promote the sustainable development of the economy in Yulin.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.21;F127

【参考文献】