西北地区产业结构调整对经济发展的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 20:38

本文选题：经济收敛　切入点：产业结构　出处：《石河子大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近几年国家进一步重视西部地区的发展，各项优惠政策逐步出台，新疆喀什经济特区、国家级新区兰州新区先后建立。西部地区得到迅速发展，经济总量大幅提高，人民生活明显改善。西北地区目前正处于加快经济发展，缩小与东部沿海地区差距的关键时期。但是，西北地区本身发展基础就非常薄弱，是我国经济发展较为落后的地区之一。在经济增长的同时，一些深层次的矛盾和问题逐渐显露出来，例如贫富差距增大，地区发展不均衡，生态环境破坏严重等。经济发展与产业结构演进总是相互辅衬的。研究产业结构的变化，，分析当前产业结构的现状以及对未来经济发展的影响，实现产业结构优化和社会经济的可持续发展就自然成为当前经济工作的重点内容。因此，有必要分析产业结构是否符合经济发展要求，提高产业竞争力优化产业结构，才能真正实现跨越式发展。本文以产业结构调整对经济发展的影响为研究核心点，综合运用计量经济模型、偏离份额分析、ArcGIS系统和空间分析，以2007年以来西北地区经济发展和产业结构数据为基础，分析了产业结构合理化和高度化问题、经济收敛和产业结构偏离份额情况。首先从产业结构合理化和高度化的理论内涵入手，选择合适可行的评价方法，分别对西北地区产业结构合理化和高度化的水平进行分析。结果表明：在研究阶段内西北地区地市级区域的产业结构合理化水平都有明显的提高。但是，各地市的合理化水平都位于1以下，即与标准结构相比还有差距。该区域产业结构高度化升级趋势基本一致，都在向更高层次演变。不同区域间的相对转移效应差距明显，尤其是第二产业向第三产业升级的强度存在明显差异，这也决定了不同地区的产业结构高度化之间的差距。其次，从新古典主义的经济收敛假说开始，通过对西北地区人均生产总值的σ收敛和β收敛的检验，并将空间滞后因素加入分析模型当中，分析了当前阶段的经济发展现状。σ收敛和β收敛检验均成立，即研究时段内西北地区区域间差异是不断缩小的，而且地理空间因素对西北地区经济收敛影响作用非常明显。再次，应用偏离份额分析法对比分析了省级和地市级层面上差异。研究发现西北地区产业结构对国民经济的发展的促进作用较弱，有进一步调整的需求和空间。各省份结构效果指数较低，说明没有产业结构优势。而且空间聚集效应不显著，生产总值呈现高-高集聚的县（市）比例不高，未形成集中连片的优势发达区域，区域间分工合作有待加强。最后，根据实证分析的结果，提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the state attaches more importance to the development of the western region, the preferential policies introduced gradually, Xinjiang Kashi Special Economic Zone, national district of Lanzhou New District has established. The western region has developed rapidly, a substantial increase in the total economy, people's lives improved significantly. The northwest region is in the key period of accelerating economic development, narrowing the gap with the eastern coastal areas. However, on the basis of the northwest development itself is very weak, is one of China's economic development is relatively backward areas. In the economic growth at the same time, some deep-seated contradictions and problems have gradually emerged, such as increasing the gap between rich and poor, uneven regional development, serious damage to the ecological environment. The economic development and the evolution of the industrial structure is always each liner. The changes of industry structure, analyzes the current situation of the industrial structure and the influence on the future economic development of the industrial structure Optimization and sustainable development of social economy have become the key contents of current economic work. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze whether the industrial structure is in line with the requirements of economic development, improve industrial competitiveness and optimize industrial structure, so that we can achieve leapfrog development.
In this paper, the adjustment of industrial structure influence on the economic development as the core, the integrated use of econometric model, shift share analysis, analysis of ArcGIS system and space, since 2007 the Northwest Economic Development and industrial structure based on the data analysis of the industrial structure rationalization and sophistication, economic convergence and industrial structure shift share the situation.
First, starting from the theoretical connotation of industrial structure rationalization, selecting the appropriate evaluation method is feasible, were analyzed in the northwestern industrial structure rationalization level. The results show that there are obvious improvement in the level of industrial structure rationalization study period in Northwest Municipal area. However, reasonable the level of each city are located below 1, with a standard structure. There is still a gap between the regional industrial structure upgrading trend is basically the same, are evolving to a higher level. The relative transfer effect between different regions of the gap is obvious, especially there is significant difference between the second industrial upgrading to third industry strength, it also decided the height of industrial structure in different regions of the gap.
Secondly, from the beginning of the neoclassical economic convergence hypothesis, through the test of the northwest region per capita GDP of convergence and convergence, and the spatial lag factors into the analysis model, analyzes the present situation of economic development at present stage. Convergence and convergence test were established, namely the study of regional differences in time in between is shrinking, and the effect of geographic factors on economic convergence in northwest region is very obvious.
Again, share analysis comparative analysis of the provincial and municipal level difference from application. The study found that the development of industrial structure in Northwest China on the national economy to promote the role of weak, further demand and adjust the index space. Each province structure effect is relatively low, indicating that there is no advantage. The industrial structure and the space aggregation effect is not significant, GDP present high high agglomeration county (city) ratio is not high, do not form a contiguous advantage in developed region, inter regional cooperation needs to be strengthened.
Finally, according to the results of the empirical analysis, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.

【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F127

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