我国人口结构与产业结构的耦合研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 12:19

本文选题：人口结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《安徽工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口是人类社会发展的主导因素,其结构状况不仅是产业结构重要的要素禀赋,而且通过劳动力构成、素质和需求结构等层面影响着产业结构转型升级的方向,人口年龄结构、城乡结构、文化结构、性别结构等,制约着产业结构发展与优化方向。此外,产业结构调整也波及人口结构,对人口的空间流动、人力资本积累等产生联动效应。因此,人口结构与产业结构的耦合关系值得我们深入研究。如何促使人口结构与经济结构协调互动、良性发展已成为影响我国社会经济可持续发展的重大命题。基于物理学中的耦合协调度模型,经过构建指标体系—数据标准化—指标赋权—综合水平指数计算—耦合度模型—协调度模型等一系列步骤后,计算出人口结构与产业结构间的耦合协调度。分析结果表明:总体处于勉强协调阶段,省份之间耦合协调度差异较大。从发展趋势来看,我国人口结构与产业结构之间的耦合协调度不断提高。人口结构与产业结构的耦合协调度存在地区差异,东部地区高于中、西地区。东部地区需要在产业结构升级中优化人口结构,中部地区加快产业结构升级,西部地区要精准定位、协调发展。借助于静态面板数据模型、静态面板数据模型和空间计量模型对经济增长与耦合协调度进行实证分析,结果发现:人口结构与产业结构间耦合协调度对经济增长有促进作用,耦合协调度越高,经济增长效应就越高;耦合协调度还存在着空间相关性,一个地区的耦合协调度对其相邻地区具有“空间溢出”作用。总体上来说,我国人口结构与产业结构间耦合协调度程度不高。根据上述研究结论,得到以下启示:第一、积极应对人口结构变化,形成“新的人口红利”;第二、加快产业结构调整,扩大产业结构对人口结构回馈作用;第三、因地制宜,注重人口结构与产业结构间的均衡发展。
[Abstract]:Population is the leading factor in the development of human society. Its structure is not only the important factor endowment of industrial structure, but also influences the direction of industrial structure transformation and upgrading through the structure of labor force, quality and demand structure, and the age structure of population.Urban and rural structure, cultural structure and gender structure restrict the development and optimization of industrial structure.In addition, the adjustment of industrial structure also affects the population structure, which has a linkage effect on the spatial flow of population and the accumulation of human capital.Therefore, the coupling relationship between population structure and industrial structure is worth our in-depth study.How to promote the harmonious interaction between population structure and economic structure and the benign development has become an important proposition that affects the sustainable development of social economy in our country.Based on the coupling coordination degree model in physics, after constructing a series of steps, such as index system, data standardization, index weighting, comprehensive level index calculation, coupling degree model and coordination degree model, etc.The degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure is calculated.The results show that the overall level of coordination is at the stage of barely coordinated, and the degree of coupling and coordination varies greatly between provinces.According to the development trend, the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure in China is increasing.There are regional differences in the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure, which are higher in the east than in the central and western regions.The eastern region needs to optimize the population structure in the upgrading of industrial structure, the central region to accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure, and the western region to precisely position and develop harmoniously.With the help of static panel data model, static panel data model and spatial econometric model, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the degree of coordination between economic growth and coupling. The results show that the degree of coupling coordination between population structure and industrial structure can promote economic growth.The higher the degree of coupling coordination is, the higher the effect of economic growth is, and the degree of coupling coordination also has spatial correlation, and the degree of coupling coordination of a region has a "spatial spillover" effect on its adjacent areas.Generally speaking, the degree of coupling and coordination between population structure and industrial structure is not high.According to the above conclusions, the following revelations are obtained: first, to actively respond to the changes in population structure and form a "new demographic dividend"; second, to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure and expand the role of industrial structure in giving feedback to the population structure; third, to take measures according to local conditions.Pay attention to the balanced development between population structure and industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F121.3

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