中国城乡居民消费差异性实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 07:05

本文选题：居民消费 + 过度敏感性　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：消费问题是我国经济发展方式转变关注的热点。而我国转型期的重要实际是城乡二元经济结构特征显著,经济发展明显不平衡,城乡居民都面临着不同环境和制度,消费行为方式存在很大差异。因此,居民消费研究极有必要对城乡进行区别对待,并进行差异比较。城乡居民消费比较,仅用单一假说进行分析,可能忽视了城乡在消费环境和假设方面的不同,显然是不合理的。因此有必要按照消费理论的发展历程,划分不同理论假说,综合检验城乡居民消费的差异性。按照消费理论的发展历程,分别用绝对收入假说、相对收入假说和持久性收入假说等收入假说和不确定性理论的λ模型和预防性储蓄理论对城乡居民消费差异性进行检验。在这过程采用的是1992-2012年21年间31个省、直辖市和自治区的城乡面板数据,并用协整理论检验变量间的长期均衡关系,然后利用面板模型分析。在总量数据分析后,本文又进行了结构分析,利用收入结构不同收入对消费影响进行分析。结论表明居民消费行为既受到当期收入又受到持久性收入的重要影响,但重要的差异性是收入假说下农村居民消费收入弹性高于城镇居民,农村居民受到持久性收入和消费习惯的影响强于当期收入,而城镇居民消费受到当期收入的影响强于持久性收入；城镇居民更符合绝对收入假说情况,对预期收入变动敏感性要强于农村,农村居民则是受到理性预期持久收入影响大于城镇；城乡居民面对收入的不确定性,都有很强的储蓄动机,全国范围和东部城镇要高于农村,但经济发展程度整体上与预防性动机负相关；城镇居民非基本收入占比上升,加强了消费对当期收入变化的敏感性。农村居民受到工资性收入持续上升,使得农村居民消费行更偏持久性和稳定。最后根据结论给出政策建议。
[Abstract]:The consumption problem is the hot spot which our country economy develops the pattern transformation to pay close attention.But the important reality in the transition period of our country is that the characteristics of urban-rural dual economic structure are remarkable, the economic development is obviously unbalanced, the urban and rural residents are faced with different environments and institutions, and there are great differences in consumption behavior.Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between urban and rural areas in the study of resident consumption.Comparing the consumption of urban and rural residents with a single hypothesis may ignore the differences between urban and rural consumption environment and assumptions, which is obviously unreasonable.Therefore, it is necessary to divide different theoretical hypotheses according to the development course of consumption theory, and comprehensively test the difference of consumption between urban and rural residents.According to the development of consumption theory, the difference of consumption between urban and rural residents is tested by the 位 model of absolute income hypothesis, relative income hypothesis and persistent income hypothesis, and the theory of precautionary savings.In this process, the urban and rural panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1992 to 2012 are used, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables is tested by co-collation theory, and then the panel model is used to analyze them.After the total amount data analysis, this article carries on the structure analysis, uses the income structure different income to carry on the analysis to the consumption influence.The conclusion shows that the consumption behavior of rural residents is affected by both current income and persistent income, but the important difference is that the elasticity of consumption income of rural residents is higher than that of urban residents under the income hypothesis.Rural residents are more affected by persistent income and consumption habits than current income, while urban residents are more affected by current income than persistent income, and urban residents are more consistent with the absolute income hypothesis.The sensitivity to expected income changes is stronger than that in rural areas, while rural residents are more affected by rational expectation of lasting income than urban areas, and urban and rural residents have strong savings motives in the face of income uncertainty.The national and eastern cities and towns are higher than those in rural areas, but the degree of economic development is negatively correlated with preventive motivation, and the proportion of non-basic income of urban residents increases, which strengthens the sensitivity of consumption to the change of income in the current period.Rural residents'wage income continues to rise, making rural residents' consumption more persistent and stable.Finally, the policy recommendations are given according to the conclusion.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1

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