利润率下降与中国经济新常态

发布时间：2018-04-12 12:17

本文选题：新常态 + 经济增速下滑　；参考：《四川大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年01期

【摘要】：经济增长速度下滑是中国经济新常态最明显的特点,其成因值得认真探讨。从马克思主义政治经济学的视角出发,利用马克思的理论对经济危机与利润率下降之间的关系进行论述,构建经济增长率与资本有机构成(或剩余价值率)、储蓄率、利润率之间的数量关系,定性分析发现,在其他变量不变的情况下,经济增长率与利润率呈现正相关关系。构建三个利润率指标,分析1998—2014年中国的经济增长率与利润率的关系,发现2007年以后资本有机构成的快速上升和剩余价值率的相对下降,导致利润率的快速下降,而且利润率与经济增长率的变化趋势高度一致,因此可以断定利润率下降是中国经济增长率下降的主要原因。通过辽宁和重庆两地经济增长率的对比分析揭示,在2010年之后出现一高一低分化的结果是两者利润率和资本有机构成的内在差异导致的。资本的破坏能够降低资本有机构成、提高利润率,进而能使经济增长率得以恢复。以何种方式进行资本破坏,是主动破坏还是被动破坏,这是中国供给侧改革可以参考的一个视角。
[Abstract]:The decline in economic growth rate is the most obvious feature of the new normal state of China's economy, and its causes are worthy of careful discussion.From the angle of Marxist political economy, this paper discusses the relationship between economic crisis and decline of profit rate by using Marx's theory, and constructs the organic composition of economic growth rate and capital (or surplus value rate, saving rate).Qualitative analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between economic growth rate and profit margin when other variables remain unchanged.This paper constructs three profit margin indicators, analyzes the relationship between the economic growth rate and the profit margin in China from 1998 to 2014, and finds that the rapid increase of the organic composition of capital and the relative decline of the residual value rate after 2007 lead to the rapid decline of the profit margin.And the profit rate is highly consistent with the trend of economic growth, so it can be concluded that the decline in profit margin is the main reason for the decline in China's economic growth rate.Through the comparative analysis of the economic growth rate between Liaoning and Chongqing, the result of a high and low differentiation after 2010 is caused by the internal difference between the profit margin and the organic composition of capital.The destruction of capital can reduce the organic composition of capital, increase profit rate, and then restore the economic growth rate.How to destroy capital actively or passively is an angle of reference for China's supply-side reform.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学《财经科学》编辑部;西南财经大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124

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