经济集聚性与污染集聚性的关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 15:55

本文选题：集聚性 + 形成机制　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着工业化进程的深入,产业的集聚性越来越显著。产业的集聚性极大地促进了科技的创新和产业的发展,提升了产业竞争力,产生了经济的集聚性,并带来了区域经济的飞速发展。18世纪中叶至今,经济的集聚性越来越受到人们的关注和研究,经济的集聚性是工业化时代经济发展的一种形态,对经济发展的促进作用显而易见。然而,作为生产过程中的“坏”产出——环境污染,始终伴随着经济的发展而产生。近年来,在我国经济发展取得了丰硕成果的同时,也加速了污染的集聚态势。因此,经济集聚性与污染集聚性之间似乎存在着密切的关系,这值得研究者们深入且全面地分析和研究。本文将从集聚的形成机制、集聚度的测算、集聚的现状和趋势以及影响集聚性的因素等方面展开论述。本文基于大量关于经济集聚性的文献研究发现,经济集聚性的产生需要一定的先决条件,即优势区域比其他区域拥有更多优先发展的机会,比如政策优势、地理优势等,使得集聚收益远大于集聚成本而推动该区域形成集聚。通过建立系统动力学模型,定性地分析经济集聚的形成机制,即具备先决条件的优势区域吸引了其他区域的要素而进入良性循环,其经济总量越来越大,技术水平越来越高,对其他区域的溢出效应也逐渐增强。由于技术溢出能够带动部分产业转移,从而促使其他区域也开始形成经济集聚,使得两区域间差距不断缩小,最终达到同一水平。但是,一旦考虑生产过程中不可避免的环境污染时,污染集聚性则对经济集聚性产生了明显的削弱作用,具体而言,污染的集聚造成了人类生存环境的破坏而导致部分劳动力转移,从而影响了生产力水平和投资环境,那么优势区域的经济集聚性会转移到其他区域而出现衰退迹象,受到影响的其他区域也将步入优势区域的后尘,最终将可能导致更严重的后果。为了有效地控制污染集聚性,研究中分析了影响污染集聚性的重要因素,分别是：劳动力数量、FDI、技术创新、能源消费量、产业结构、城市化率和绿化面积。在我国,依托改革开放的政策和沿海地区交通运输、贸易便利等优势,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等经济圈迅速兴起,发展势头良好。在经济发展的同时,环境问题也日益突出,逐渐形成了污染的集聚。为了更直观地分析经济集聚性和污染集聚性,研究中引入了Herfindahl指数、Gini指数、趋同理论和地理集中度指数共同分析经济集聚度和污染集聚度。结果表明：2000—2011年,我国经济集聚性和污染集聚性在整体上呈现弱集聚现象但局部存在较强的集聚性,污染的集聚是由经济的集聚带动,并随着经济集聚度呈先升后降的态势；未来我国将进入均衡发展时期,地区间差距将缩小,并最终达到同一水平,经济集聚性将不复存在,而污染将保持一定的集聚性；东部地区的经济集聚性和污染集聚性与全国的变化趋势类似,中部地区的经济集聚性和污染集聚性都将不存在,西部地区的经济集聚性将不存在,但污染将存在一定的集聚性；目前,北京、天津、上海和江苏的经济集聚度和污染集聚度位居前列,新疆和青海排名最后。在测算过程中还发现,不同的集聚度的测算方法各有优劣,四种方法共同论述了我国经济集聚性和污染集聚性的现状和未来趋势。此外,根据相关性分析方法的结论再一次说明经济集聚性与污染集聚性呈正相关关系,污染集聚性是由经济集聚性带动的。由污染集聚性的空间自相关性检验可知,污染集聚性受到空间区位的影响,故研究中采用空间误差模型以定量地分析影响污染集聚性的因素。经济集聚性是引起污染集聚性的首要决定因素；能源消费、城镇化进程、外商直接投资都会显著地促进污染的集聚；技术创新则明显地阻碍了污染的集聚；产业结构对污染集聚的作用不显著；人口的高集聚性则未必会引起污染的高集聚性,如我国的上海和北京等发达城市,尽管人口密度很大,但是由于污染处理及时得力而未引起污染的迅速集聚。最后,根据结论提出政策建议,分别是：适当放缓经济增长速度,保证经济发展质量；提高能源利用率,探索可替代的新能源；转变经济发展方式,优化升级产业结构；加强环保知识宣传,增强环保意识；控制城市化进程,保证耕地面积18亿亩红线；扩大绿化面积,提高环境投入；有效地引入外资,鼓励民营资本进入,提高自主创新能力；发挥政府引导作用,统筹兼顾全局,保持一定的污染集聚性。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the industrialization process , the agglomeration of the industry is becoming more and more remarkable . The agglomeration of the industry has greatly promoted the innovation of science and technology and the development of the industry , promoted the industrial competitiveness , and brought about the rapid development of the regional economy .

Based on a large number of literature studies on economic agglomeration , this paper finds that the emergence of economic agglomeration requires a certain precondition , that is , the advantage region has more preferential development opportunities than other regions , such as policy advantage , geographical advantage and so on .

In China , relying on the policies of reform and opening up and the advantages of transportation and trade facilitation in the coastal areas , the economic circles such as the Yangtze River Delta , the Pearl River Delta and the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region are booming , and the development momentum is good . At the same time , the environmental problems are becoming more and more prominent in the economic development .
in that future , China will enter a period of equilibrium development , the gap between the regions will be narrow , and the same level will eventually be reached , and the economic agglomeration will not exist , and the pollution will maintain a certain concentration ;
The economic agglomeration and the pollution accumulation in the eastern region are similar to those of the whole country . The economic agglomeration and the pollution agglomeration of the central region will not exist , and the economic agglomeration of the western region will not exist , but the pollution will have certain concentration .
At present , the economic agglomeration degree and the pollution concentration degree of Beijing , Tianjin , Shanghai and Jiangsu ranked the top , Xinjiang and Qinghai ranked the last . In the calculation process , it is also found that the methods of calculating different clustering degree are superior and inferior , and the four methods discuss the present situation and future trend of economic agglomeration and pollution agglomeration in China . In addition , according to the conclusion of the correlation analysis method , the positive correlation between economic agglomeration and pollution concentration is explained again , and the pollution agglomeration is driven by economic agglomeration .

The spatial error model is used to quantitatively analyze the factors that influence the concentration of pollution . Economic agglomeration is the primary determinant of pollution agglomeration .
The energy consumption , the urbanization process and the foreign direct investment can obviously promote the accumulation of pollution ;
Technological innovation significantly impedes the accumulation of pollution ;
The effect of industrial structure on the concentration of pollution is not significant ;
The high concentration of the population may not necessarily lead to the high concentration of pollution , such as the Shanghai and Beijing - developed cities in China , although the population density is large , but the pollution treatment is timely and without causing rapid agglomeration of pollution . Finally , according to the conclusion , the policy suggestions are put forward , namely , appropriate slowdown of economic growth rate and guarantee the quality of economic development ;
improving energy utilization ratio and exploring alternative new energy sources ;
Change the way of economic development , optimize the upgrading of industrial structure ;
Strengthen the publicity of environmental protection knowledge and enhance the awareness of environmental protection ;
the urbanization process is controlled to ensure that the cultivated land occupies an area of 18 billion mu of red line ;
enlarging the green area and improving the environmental input ;
effectively introduce foreign capital , encourage private capital to enter and improve independent innovation ability ;
Give full play to the government ' s guiding role , make overall consideration to the whole , maintain a certain degree of pollution agglomeration .

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X22;F124;F224

【参考文献】