重庆市城乡收入差距演变及其对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-04-13 09:08

本文选题：城乡收入差距 + 经济增长　；参考：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究城镇化过程中城乡收入差距演变及其对经济增长影响问题。在借鉴国内外相关研究基础上,建立基本框架分析城乡收入差距演变理论逻辑及对经济增长的影响传动机制,随后对改革开放以来重庆市城乡收入差距、经济增长的演变特征进行初步分析,接着对理论分析的结果进行了计量检验,最后从线性、空间统计两个不同角度分析城乡收入差距对经济增长的影响效应。理论分析表明：以泰尔指数为代表的城乡收入差距与城镇化率之间存在典型的倒U关系；重庆市城乡收入差距与人口城镇化率、土地城镇化率及财政政策偏向有关,具体效应需以计量分析予以验证；城乡收入差距引起要素集聚,产生产业集聚,从而在空间上发生一系列的连锁反应,城乡收入差距引起的空间效应最后通过消费、投资以及对外贸易或者FDI传动到经济增长上。计量分析表明：(1)重庆市城乡收入差距虽近几年有所减低,但是一直在大于全国平均水平的高位运行；直辖以后重庆市的经济增长速度明显加快。(2)以泰尔指数和城乡收入比代表的城乡收入差距在整体走势上有所差别,直辖以来前者表现为逐渐下降的趋势,较为平滑,但二者都表现为先下降后上升再下降的趋。(3)重庆市人口城镇化率、土地城镇化率及政府经济参与度对城乡收入差距的影响大体可分为三个阶段,第一阶段是1999年前,以上三个变量的弹性系数均为负；第二阶段为2000-2007年,三个变量的弹性迅速陡升,变化率为正2007年达峰值,城乡收入差距在逐渐拉大；第三阶段为2008-2012年,2007年重庆成为统筹城乡改革的试验区,此后三变量对城乡差距的影响虽降,但仍高于全国平均水平,当前重庆城乡收入差距演变已成“锁定”之势。(4)重庆市城乡收入差距对经济增长影响的传导机制主要表现为：城乡收入差距长期上对消费的负向作用,城乡收入差距与社会固定资产投资的无关性——说明重庆市社会投资政府主导作用强、市场程度弱,以及城乡收入差距对FDI的长期正向影响。(5)重庆市城乡差距对经济增长的效应,本文的线性模型估计表明前者对后者的影响逐年增强,极化发展势头明显；空间分析表明,重庆市经济增长在空间上具有自相关性,局部存在聚集,分析认为要素集聚、经济增长集聚二者在制度、文化、区位条件等因素的影响下互相累积因果,加强了重庆市经济增长的空间非均衡性。文章最后根据以上各研究结论进行了讨论,并提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the evolution of urban-rural income gap and its impact on economic growth in the process of urbanization.On the basis of domestic and foreign relevant research, this paper establishes a basic framework to analyze the theoretical logic of urban-rural income gap evolution and its impact on economic growth, and then analyzes the urban-rural income gap in Chongqing since the reform and opening up.The evolution characteristics of economic growth are preliminarily analyzed, and the results of theoretical analysis are tested by econometrics. Finally, the effects of urban-rural income gap on economic growth are analyzed from two different angles: linear and spatial statistics.The theoretical analysis shows that there is a typical inverted U relation between urban-rural income gap and urbanization rate, and the urban-rural income gap is related to population urbanization rate, land urbanization rate and fiscal policy bias.The specific effects need to be verified by econometric analysis; the income gap between urban and rural areas leads to factors agglomeration and industrial agglomeration, thus a series of chain reactions occur in space, and the spatial effect caused by urban-rural income gap finally passes through consumption.Investment and foreign trade or FDI drive to economic growth.The econometric analysis shows that the income gap between urban and rural areas in Chongqing has decreased in recent years, but has been running at a higher level than the national average.The economic growth rate of Chongqing Municipality has obviously accelerated. (2) the urban-rural income gap represented by the Terre index and the urban-rural income ratio has a difference in the overall trend. The former shows a gradual downward trend and is relatively smooth since it became directly under the jurisdiction.However, both of them are the trend of decreasing first, then rising and then decreasing.) the urbanization rate of Chongqing population, the influence of land urbanization rate and government economic participation on the income gap between urban and rural areas can be divided into three stages: the first stage is before 1999.The elasticity coefficient of the above three variables is all negative, the second stage is 2000-2007, the elasticity of the three variables rises rapidly and steeply, the change rate reaches the peak in 2007, and the income gap between urban and rural areas is gradually widening.The third stage is 2008-2012. In 2007, Chongqing became a pilot area for urban and rural reform. The impact of the three variables on the urban-rural gap has decreased, but is still higher than the national average.The transmission mechanism of the influence of urban-rural income gap on economic growth in Chongqing is as follows: the negative effect of urban-rural income gap on consumption in a long time.The irrelevance of the income gap between urban and rural areas and social investment in fixed assets shows that the social investment government in Chongqing has a strong leading role and a weak market.And the long-term positive effect of urban-rural income gap on FDI. (5) the effect of urban-rural disparity on economic growth in Chongqing. The linear model estimates show that the influence of the former on the latter is increasing year by year, and the trend of polarization is obvious.The economic growth of Chongqing has the spatial autocorrelation and the local aggregation. It is considered that the factor agglomeration and the economic growth agglomeration are cumulative causality under the influence of institution, culture, location conditions and so on.The spatial disequilibrium of economic growth in Chongqing has been strengthened.Finally, the paper discusses the above conclusions and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7;F127

【参考文献】