中国省际区域家庭债务的空间关联及其解释

发布时间：2018-04-16 16:28

本文选题：家庭债务 + 空间相关　；参考：《统计与决策》2017年17期

【摘要】：文章基于2004—2015年中国省际家庭债务数据,通过构建空间计量SLM及SEM模型,研究了省际区域家庭债务的空间相关性。结果显示:(1)我国家庭债务在空间分布上表现出集聚效应,且样本期间的Mo-ran’s I指数显著为正,这表明我国家庭债务具有正向的空间相关性;(2)空间相关性对区域家庭债务的增长产生了显著正向影响,即一个地区家庭债务的增长将通过空间溢出促进周边地区家庭债务的增长;(3)住房价格及人均收入水平对家庭债务有显著正向影响,而人均储蓄对家庭债务的影响为负,经济发展水平对家庭债务的影响并不显著。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of inter-provincial household debt in China from 2004 to 2015, this paper studies the spatial correlation of household debt in inter-provincial regions by constructing spatial SLM and SEM models.The results show that: 1) the spatial distribution of household debt in China shows agglomeration effect, and the Mo-ran's I index during the sample period is significantly positive.This indicates that the spatial correlation of household debt in China has a significant positive impact on the growth of regional household debt.That is, the growth of household debt in a region will promote the growth of household debt in the surrounding areas through spatial spillover. (3) Housing prices and per capita income levels have a significant positive impact on household debt, while the impact of per capita savings on household debt is negative.The impact of economic development on household debt is not significant.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(14BJL029)
【分类号】：F126.2

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