货币反替代对我国经济的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 09:27

本文选题：货币替代 + 货币反替代　；参考：《中国科学技术大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,中国经济的快速健康发展,为人民币国际化进程的推进提供了坚实的后盾。中国贸易的迅速发展以及金融市场的不断完善,其深度和广度也在不断的扩大,这些都为人民币的国际化提供了重要的价值支撑和机制支撑。纵观发达国家的货币的发展历程,在其国际化的进程中必然伴随着货币替代与反替代的不断交替的出现,人民币的国际化提升了人民币在全球经济中的地位,不断强化了人民币在本国内部对外币的反替代,同时,也强化了人民币在周边国家和区域内对其本币的替代。自汇改以来,在凭借中国强大的经济实力,人民币长期处于升值态势下,人民币对外币的反替代的规模和作用正在逐步的超越外币对人民币的替代。在反替代占据主导作用的情况下,必然会对我国的宏观经济以及汇率、股票、地产等产生相应的影响,首先会降低货币的政策的独立性,同时会对货币供应量产生一定的影响,进而影响CPI等。对汇率而言会影响汇率的形成机制,同时,货币反替代必然导致大量的资本流入国内,从而对股票市场和房地产市场造成一定的冲击。从货币竞争的角度来看,货币替代与反替代是货币竞争结果,货币反替代则是“良币驱逐劣币”市场选择的过程。过度的替代与反替代必然会对一国经济造成严重的影响,在现阶段我国的金融市场和法律制度虽然有所改善,但是相比美国等发达的金融市场和制度仍然有很多不足之处。为了有效的降低人民币国际化以及货币替代与反替代带来的风险和冲击,中国必须进行金融体系的改革,尽力扩大汇率的浮动范围,采取更加灵活而有弹性的汇率制度,同时在国内尽快推进利率市场化,有助于降低两国利率间的套利行为,减弱了人民币反替代的规模和程度,进而减缓了对汇率的冲击。在保持我国宏观经济基本面良好和经济平稳快速发展的前提下,审慎有序的推动资本账户渐进开放,与此同时,加强开放体系下的金融监管,建立和完善跨境资金流动监测体系,合理引导资本的流动,避免对我国经济造成一定的负面影响。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the rapid and healthy development of China's economy has provided a solid backing for the advancement of RMB internationalization. The rapid development of China's trade and the continuous improvement of financial market, its depth and breadth are also expanding, which provide an important value support and mechanism support for the internationalization of RMB. Throughout the development of developed countries' currency, in the process of its internationalization, currency substitution and anti-substitution continue to appear alternately, the internationalization of RMB has enhanced the status of RMB in the global economy. It has also strengthened the exchange rate of the yuan in the neighboring countries and regions. Since the exchange rate reform, with the strong economic strength of China, the RMB has been in the situation of appreciation for a long time, and the scale and function of the anti-substitution of RMB to foreign currency is gradually surpassing the substitution of foreign currency to RMB. Under the dominant role of anti-substitution, it will inevitably have a corresponding impact on China's macroeconomic, exchange rate, stock, real estate and so on. First of all, it will reduce the independence of monetary policy, and at the same time it will have a certain impact on the money supply. And then influence CPI et al. The formation mechanism of exchange rate will be influenced by the exchange rate. At the same time, the counter-substitution of currency will inevitably lead to a large amount of capital flowing into the country, thus causing a certain impact on the stock market and the real estate market. From the point of view of currency competition, currency substitution and anti-substitution are the result of currency competition, and currency anti-substitution is the process of market choice of "good money expelling bad currency". Excessive substitution and anti-substitution will inevitably have a serious impact on the economy of a country. Although the financial market and legal system of our country have been improved at the present stage, there are still many deficiencies compared with the developed financial markets and institutions such as the United States. In order to effectively reduce the risks and impacts of RMB internationalization and currency substitution and counter-substitution, China must reform its financial system, try its best to expand the floating range of the exchange rate, and adopt a more flexible and flexible exchange rate system. At the same time, pushing forward the interest rate marketization at home as soon as possible will help to reduce the arbitrage behavior between the two countries' interest rates, weaken the scale and extent of the RMB's counter-substitution, and then mitigate the impact on the exchange rate. On the premise of maintaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals and stable and rapid economic development in China, we should prudently and orderly promote the gradual opening of the capital account, and at the same time, strengthen financial supervision under the open system. To establish and perfect the monitoring system of cross-border capital flow, to guide the capital flow rationally and to avoid some negative effects on our economy.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F832.6

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