不同制约因素下房价对居民消费的影响研究——基于省级面板数据门槛模型的实证

发布时间：2018-04-23 10:44

本文选题：居民消费 + 住房财富效应　；参考：《石家庄经济学院学报》2016年06期

【摘要】：论文考虑不同制约因素下房价对居民消费的影响可能存在非线性转换,基于中国2000年—2013年间省际面板数据和门槛模型来检验老年人口比重、少儿人口比重及住房资产占比在房价波动对居民消费的影响中是否存在门槛效应,结果发现三个门槛变量均存在双重门槛效应,但对应的三种区制转换特点不同。在人口年龄结构变量的不同区制下房价对居民消费均具有正向影响,但随着老年人口比重的增加,房价对居民消费的影响程度先增后减;随着少儿人口比重的增加,房价对居民消费的作用程度先减后增;住房资产占比的前两种区制下房价对居民消费的影响为负值,跨过第二个门槛值后开始转为正向影响。
[Abstract]:Considering the influence of house price on residents' consumption under different constraints, this paper tests the proportion of elderly population based on the provincial panel data and threshold model from 2000 to 2013. The proportion of children's population and the proportion of housing assets have a threshold effect in the impact of house price fluctuation on residents' consumption. The results show that the three threshold variables all have double threshold effect, but the corresponding characteristics of the three regional systems are different. Under the different district system of population age structure variable, house price has positive influence on resident consumption, but with the increase of the proportion of elderly population, the influence degree of house price on resident consumption increases first and then decreases; with the increase of the proportion of children population, The effect of house price on residents' consumption decreases first and then increases, and the effect of housing price on residents' consumption is negative under the first two districts where the proportion of housing assets is in the first two regions, and becomes positive after crossing the second threshold.
【作者单位】：闽南师范大学商学院;
【基金】：福建省中青年教师教育一般项目(JAS160295)
【分类号】：F126.1

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