城镇居民收入分布变迁的消费市场效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 15:46

本文选题：收入分布变迁 + 消费市场效应　；参考：《吉林大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来，我国进入一个有史以来最好的发展阶段，经济高速增长带来居民收入水平的快速提高及其分配结构的剧烈演变，而且快速发展过程中出现问题及在问题解决中呈现出的反复和震荡，必然比发达国家来的明显和剧烈。中国这一特定的经济环境决定了其在整个发展过程中的理论创新和政策实践必将遇到许多不同于西方传统理论的新挑战和新课题。于是，从收入分布变迁出发，重新审视我国收入和消费间的作用机制，对寻求激发和释放居民需求的突破口来说，具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文以“经济增长→居民收入分布变迁→消费行为改变→消费市场效应”为思想主线，以居民收入分布变迁为切入点，且把其作为近年来我国居民消费需求演变的主要动力，提出了收入分布变迁消费市场效应的理论预期，该预期的核心内容是在市场机制主导下由居民收入分布变迁引致而来的居民消费需求偏好和档次的转变和局部多个市场轮番出现供不应求和价格虚高等非均衡现象的结果。为分析其合理性，本文从理论和计量两个展开讨论。首先通过对西方经典消费理论的简单回顾和评析，在储蓄动机不同的异质群体假设下分析出了收入和储蓄之间的“马鞍形”关系，此为西方收入分布和消费作用的主要理论观点。但通过对我国城镇居民收入分布变迁和需求的演变规律发现，此规律并不符合我国居民特有的间歇性周期波动消费行为及其“整体需求不足、局部需求旺盛”的需求现状，很难实现西方式的由微观到宏观的过度。因此本文转换思路，从收入分布视角，并结合我国居民消费行为规律，提出收入分布变迁消费市场效应的理论预期是很有理论必要的。要计量检验收入分布变迁消费市场效应的存在性和合理性，前提需完成收入分布变迁的测度及相关计量变量的设计。首先运用非参数核密度估计方法和多种函数形式参数方法相结合的方式，选取8次CHNS数据的大样本调查数据和统计年鉴中2000-2009年城镇居民收入分组数据对收入分布进行了拟合，结果显示我国城镇居民收入水平由低到高向上转移的趋势明显，而这种提高的不同步性又导致了收入差距的扩大。其次采用反事实分析法，分解得到度量收入分布变迁的均值变化、方差变化和残差变化三个动态特征的计量变量，分解结果中均值变化占据主导，方差变化次之，说明在收入分布变迁中经济发展的推动作用为主导，由现阶段的分配制度等导致的不同步次之。在收入分布变迁计量完成基础上，依据消费的经济逻辑理论，在异质性偏好的前提下，证明了收入分布变迁会对会对总消费产生组群下的水平效应、组内规模效应和组间分配效应三方面影响。而后采用CHIP数据中2002年和2007年的城镇数据，借助内生性门限回归的组群划分，通过对上述结果的实证检验表明，水平效应对总消费变化的影响占主导；规模效应则对总消费有抑制作用，源于组群间由高到低的人口回流；组间分配效应在整体上作用很小，表明组间收入差距对总消费的抑制作用没有想象中那么大，但群体间作用差异大，尤其是低收入组群对总消费的抑制作用最大。在上一步研究基础上进一步深入，对消费支出分布分位点上居民的收入分布变迁消费效应进行研究。为了保证微观数据间的可比性，对CHIP数据进行了人工面板改造，借助其门限模型的分位数回归，完成了消费分布分位点上收入分布变迁消费效应的度量，结果表明居民收入方差带来的离散效应在各分位点的消费效应中占据主导，而均值变化带来的水平效应表现乏力。因此，水平效应对绝对支出增长贡献的乏力，直接导致了其在现实中对消费率拉低的主导作用。另外，我国收入分布和消费分布间存在矛盾，其根源由对CHIP数据的统计分析表明，在于现阶段我国多数居民，尤其是中等阶层面临的消费结构困境。至于收入分布变迁对消费结构的影响效应研究，首先构造“反事实收入变量”，对AIDS模型进行动态性扩展，而后基于我国“十五”和“十一五”两期的城镇数据进行了实证检验，结果显示“十五”时期我国城镇居民消费结构整体上由生存型向发展型演变升级，整体收入的提高带来的水平效应是我国消费结构不断升级的主要原因；而“十一五”期间的水平效应不再显著，，离散和异质效应占据主导，整体社会需求下滑；但收入差距对个别市场消费有一定积极作用，尤其对耐用品和文化娱乐服务等消费；异质效应作用下高收入阶层已有显著地的服务类消费需求，消费结构存在进一步升级的可能。上述分析说明水平效应决定整体需求，而离散和异质效应影响单个市场需求。最后进一步以家用车市场为例考察了收入分布变迁对单一市场的影响。基于按收入分组的城镇居民家用车拥有量等数据，采用基于消费函数回归的分解方法，度量了收入分布变迁对家用车市场的影响效应。结果显示收入分布变迁的水平效应几乎均起到了决定性的正向拉动作用，但其效果并未得到充分释放，原因在于离散效应对低收入者的抑制作用，但离散效应对中等以上的高收入人群的需求具有很强的正向促进作用，其现阶段在全国整体来看仍有积极作用；异质效应则由于数据原因略显微弱。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China has entered the best development stage in history. The rapid economic growth has brought about the rapid improvement of the income level of the residents and the dramatic evolution of the distribution structure, and the problems appearing in the process of rapid development and the reversal and concussion presented in the problem solving are certainly more obvious and more dramatic than those in the developed countries. The specific economic environment in China determines that the theoretical innovation and policy practice in the whole process of development will meet many new challenges and new topics which are different from the traditional western theories. From the change of income distribution, we reexamine the mechanism of the income and consumption in China, and seek to stimulate and release the needs of the residents. For breach, it has important theoretical and practical significance.
This paper, based on the "economic growth, the change of the distribution of residents' income, the change of consumption behavior and the effect of consumer market", takes the change of residents' income distribution as the breakthrough point, and takes it as the main motive force of the evolution of the consumer demand in China in recent years, and puts forward the theoretical expectation of the effect of the change of the income distribution on the consumption market, and the expected core The content of the heart is the result of the consumption demand preference and grade change caused by the change of residents' income distribution under the market mechanism led by the change of residents' income distribution, and the result of unbalanced supply and price deficiency in the local multiple markets. In order to analyze its rationality, this paper is discussed from two theories and measures.
First of all, through a simple review and analysis of the western classical consumption theory, the "saddle shape" relationship between income and savings is analyzed under the hypothesis of different heterogeneous groups of savings motives. This is the main theoretical point of view of the distribution and consumption of income in the West. It is found that the law does not conform to the specific consumption behavior of intermittent periodic fluctuation in our country and the demand of "insufficient overall demand and strong local demand". It is difficult to realize the western style from microcosmic to macro. Therefore, this paper puts forward the idea of changing ideas from income distribution and combining with the law of consumer behavior in our country. The theoretical anticipation of the effect of entering and distributing the consumption market is very theoretical and necessary.
In order to measure the existence and rationality of the change of the consumption market effect of the change of income distribution, the measurement of the change of income distribution and the design of relative variables should be completed. First, the large sample data and statistical year of the 8 CHNS data are selected by combining the non parametric kernel density estimation method and the multiple function form parameter methods. The income distribution of urban residents in the 2000-2009 years is fitted. The results show that the income level of urban residents from low to high is obvious, and the unsynchronization of this kind of improvement leads to the expansion of income gap. Secondly, the change of income distribution is measured by the anti fact analysis. The measurement variables of three dynamic characteristics, such as value change, variance change and residual variation, dominate the mean change in the decomposition results, and the variance change is the second. It shows that the driving role of economic development in the change of income distribution is dominant, which is caused by the current stage distribution system and so on.
On the basis of the measurement of income distribution change, based on the economic logic theory of consumption, under the premise of heterogeneity preference, it is proved that the change of income distribution will affect the level effect under the group of total consumption, the intra group scale effect and the inter group distribution effect in three aspects, and then adopt the town data of 2002 and 2007 in the CHIP data. By means of the group division of the endogenous threshold regression, the empirical test of the above results shows that the influence of the level effect on the total consumption change is dominant; the scale effect has the inhibitory effect on the total consumption, which is derived from the backflow of the population from high to low, and the effect of the inter group distribution is small on the whole, which indicates that the income gap between the groups is to the total. The inhibitory effect of consumption is not as great as expected, but there is a large difference between groups. Especially, the low income group has the largest inhibitory effect on total consumption.
On the basis of the last step, we further study the consumption effect of the income distribution changes on the consumption distribution loci. In order to ensure the comparability of the microdata, the CHIP data is reconstructed by artificial panel and the income distribution on the consumption distribution site is changed with the help of the quantile regression of the threshold model. The measurement of the effect of migrating consumption shows that the discrete effect of the resident income variance dominates the consumption effect of the sub loci, while the level effect of the mean change is weak. Therefore, the lack of the contribution of the level effect to the absolute expenditure increase directly leads to its leading role in the low consumption rate in reality. There is a contradiction between the distribution of income and the distribution of consumption in China. The root of the problem is that the statistical analysis of CHIP data shows that most of the residents in China, especially the middle class, are facing the consumption structure dilemma at the present stage.
As for the effect of income distribution change on the consumption structure, the "anti factual income variable" is first constructed, the AIDS model is dynamically expanded, and then based on the urban data of "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year" in China, the empirical test shows that the urban residents' consumption structure in China in the "fifteen" period is on the whole. The upgrading of the survival type to the development type and the level effect of the overall income increase are the main reasons for the continuous upgrading of the consumption structure in China, while the level effect of the "11th Five-Year" is no longer significant, the discrete and heterogeneous effects dominate, and the overall social demand is declining; but the income gap has a positive effect on the individual market consumption, Especially for the consumption of durable goods and cultural entertainment services, the high income class has significant service consumption demand and the consumption structure may be further upgraded under the effect of heterogeneous effect. The above analysis shows that the level effect determines the overall demand, and the discrete and heterogeneous effects affect the individual market demand.
Finally, we take the household car market as an example to examine the influence of the income distribution change on the single market. Based on the data of the household car ownership of the urban residents according to the income group, the effect of the change of income distribution on the household car market is measured by the decomposition method based on the consumption function regression. The result shows the change of the income distribution. The effect of the leveling effect almost all played a decisive positive pull effect, but its effect was not fully released, because the discretization effect on the low income people was inhibited, but the discrete effect had a strong positive effect on the demand of the high income crowd, which was still positive in the whole country at the present stage. The quality effect is slightly weak because of the data.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.7;F126.1;F224

【参考文献】