我国经济社会协调发展的动态监测、影响机理及实现路径研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 23:36

本文选题：经济社会协调发展 + 动态监测　；参考：《浙江大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：目前,我国经济社会发展面临巨大的转型升级压力,同时又深受世界经济结构深度调整的影响,要从容应对这一发展环境以及该环境所提出的挑战,就必须坚持走经济社会协调发展之路。为贯彻落实经济社会协调发展,必然要了解我国经济社会协调发展水平,并明确我国经济社会协调发展的影响因素和影响机理,在此基础上提出实现我国经济社会协调发展的对策。在本研究中,集中解决五个重要问题：一是建构一套较为科学的动态监测我国经济社会协调发展的指标体系；二是寻找合适的用于测度我国经济社会协调发展的模型；三是动态监测我国横向和纵向的经济社会协调发展水平；四是探索我国经济社会协调发展的影响因素和影响机理；五是提出实现我国经济社会协调发展的对策建议。为解决以上问题,本研究将采用定性与定量相结合的混合研究路径进行研究。其中定性研究主要用于梳理已有相关文献,并从系统论角度对我国经济社会协调发展进行理论解析以及最后提出实现我国经济社会协调发展的对策建议；定量研究则主要用于我国经济社会协调发展指标体系的构建、我国经济社会协调发展水平的动态监测以及我国经济社会协调发展的影响因素及影响机理的探索。在具体操作过程中,也采用了多种研究方法,其中资料收集方法包括问卷调查法、文献法以及头脑风暴法等；资料分析法包括隶属度分析、鉴别力分析、相关分析以及结构方程模型分析等。围绕五个关键问题,在一定方法论的指导下,对我国经济社会协调发展问题的研究取得了以下5个主要研究结论：①构建了较为科学的动态监测我国经济社会协调发展的指标体系。本研究严格按照量表编制的程序进行指标体系的构建,最终形成了包含12个经济发展指标和14个社会发展指标的我国经济社会协调发展动态监测指标体系。②建立了监测我国经济社会协调发展的模型。根据我国经济社会协调发展的内涵,本研究认为监测我国经济社会协调发展的模型至少满足两个条件：即要能测量我国经济社会发展度,也能测量经济社会协调度。依据这样的理解,对离差系数进行了改造,构造了我国经济社会协调发展动态监测模型。③动态监测了我国经济社会协调发展水平。以我国经济社会协调发展动态监测指标体系为基础,采集相关数据,运用所构造的协调模型工具,分别对1986-2012年我国经济社会协调发展水平以及2012年我国31个省、市、自治区的经济社会协调发展水平进行了监测。1986-2012年时间序列上的我国经济社会协调发展指数表明,总体而言,我国经济社会协调发展水平处于不断上升趋势,协调等级也从失调向协调转变。从时间剖面上来看,2012年我国31个省、市、自治区的经济社会协调发展指数差异较为明显,从协调等级来看,我国31个省、市、自治区处于良好协调的有4个,处于中级协调的有8个,处于初级协调的有12个,处于勉强协调的有5个,处于濒临失调的有2个。④采用结构方程模型分析了我国经济社会协调发展的影响因素和影响机理。通过结构方程模型分析,估计了我国经济社会协调发展影响因素以及影响因素对我国经济社会协调发展水平的影响的大小。其中市场经济成熟度和政府宏观调控有效度对我国经济社会协调发展呈现正面的积极影响,而公民社会成熟度则对我国经济社会协调发展有负面影响。⑤提出了实现我国经济社会协调发展的对策建议。根据经济社会协调发展的影响因素与影响机理的结构方程模型分析,从市场-政府-社会视角提出系统的促进我国经济社会协调发展的对策,认为可以从完善社会主义市场经济体制、建立有限政府以及培养活力社会三个方面促进我国经济社会协调发展,最终形成市场主责、政府主导、社会主行的三大主体协同共治局面。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic and social development faces great pressure of transformation and upgrading, and is deeply influenced by the depth adjustment of the world economic structure. To cope with this development environment and the challenges posed by this environment, we must adhere to the road of coordinated economic and social development. In order to carry out the coordinated development of economic society, we must understand our country. The level of economic and social development is coordinated and the influence and influence mechanism of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society are clearly defined. On this basis, the countermeasures are put forward to realize the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. In this study, five important problems are solved: one is to construct a more scientific and dynamic monitoring of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. The two is to find a suitable model to measure the coordinated development of our country's economy and society; the three is to dynamically monitor the horizontal and vertical economic and social coordinated development level of our country; the four is to explore the influencing factors and the influence mechanism of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society, and five to put forward the countermeasures to realize the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. In order to solve the above problems, this study will study the mixed research path of the combination of qualitative and quantitative. The qualitative research is mainly used to comb the existing literature and analyze the coordinated development of China's economy and society from the perspective of system theory and finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to realize the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. The quantitative research is mainly used in the construction of the economic and social coordinated development index system in China, the dynamic monitoring of the coordinated development level of our economy and society, the influencing factors and the mechanism of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. In the process of specific operation, many methods are used, among which the data collection methods include the question. The survey method, the literature method and the brainstorming method, etc. the data analysis method includes the membership degree analysis, the discriminative analysis, the correlation analysis and the structural equation model analysis. Under the guidance of the five key problems, the following 5 main conclusions are obtained in the study of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society under the guidance of a certain methodology: 1 A more scientific indicator system for dynamic monitoring of the coordinated development of economic and social development in China is built. This study is constructed strictly in accordance with the program compiled by the scale. Finally, a dynamic monitoring index system for coordinated development of economic and social development in China has been formed with 12 economic development indicators and 14 social development indicators. According to the connotations of coordinated economic and social development in China, according to the connotations of the coordinated development of our country's economy and society, this study holds that the model for monitoring the coordinated development of our country's economy and society meets at least two conditions: that is to measure the economic and social development of our country and to measure the coordination degree of the economy and society. According to this understanding, the coefficient of deviation is reformed. The dynamic monitoring model of coordinated development of economic and social development in China is constructed. (3) the coordinated development level of China's economy and society is monitored dynamically. Based on the dynamic monitoring index system of China's economic and social coordinated development, relevant data are collected, and the coordinated development level of China's economy and society in 1986-2012 years is respectively applied to the coordinated development level of China's economy and society by using the coordinated model tools constructed. And the economic and social coordinated development level of 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China in 2012 and the economic and social coordinated development index of China in the.1986-2012 year series of monitoring shows that, in general, the level of economic and social coordinated development in China is on the rising trend, and the coordination level has also changed from imbalance to coordination. From the time section, In 2012, the economic and social coordinated development index of the 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions of our country is more obvious. From the level of coordination, there are 4 in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, 8 in intermediate coordination, 12 in primary coordination, 5 in barely coordinated and 2 in the near misalignment. (4) adopt the structure The influence factors and the influence mechanism of the coordinated development of economic and social development in China are analyzed by the equation model. Through the analysis of the structural equation model, the influence factors of the coordinated development of China's economic and social development and the influence factors on the coordinated development level of our country's economy and society are estimated. The maturity of the market economy and the effectiveness of the government's macro regulation and control are also analyzed. It has positive positive impact on the coordinated development of our country's economy and society, and the maturity of civil society has a negative impact on the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. The government social perspective puts forward the countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of our country's economy and society. It is believed that we can promote the coordinated development of China's economy and society from three aspects: perfecting the socialist market economic system, establishing a limited government and cultivating a dynamic society, and finally forming the main responsibility of the market, the government leading, and the three main bodies of the social main line. Deal with the situation.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;D630

【参考文献】