中国居民消费率的可比性调整——基于经验与统计分析的视角

发布时间：2018-04-26 04:04

本文选题：居民消费率 + 统计核算　；参考：《金融评论》2017年04期

【摘要】：相关理论和国际经验事实表明,消费是宏观经济中最平稳的变量。这反衬出改革开放以来中国居民消费率统计核算数据的持续大幅下降非比寻常。本文认为,统计核算体系的变化和调整影响了核算数据的可比性,是导致其大幅下降的主要原因。基于对核算体系的分析,选取综合方法对数据进行可比性调整:重新推算社会消费品零售总额,剔除居民消费核算方法变化带来的影响;推算城镇居民住房消费,剔除自有住房虚拟折旧低估带来的影响。调整后的数据表明,1978-2014年中国居民消费率水平总体稳定在45%-50%之间,不存在持续下降。在利用支持向量回归模型验证了调整后数据的合理性后,本文初步讨论了这一基本事实蕴含的若干理论和政策含义,为供给侧结构性改革提供了一定的数据支撑。
[Abstract]:Relevant theories and international experience facts show that consumption is the most stable variable in macro economy. This contrast to the reform and opening up since China's consumption rate statistics continue to decline significantly. This paper holds that the change and adjustment of statistical accounting system affects the comparability of accounting data and is the main reason leading to its sharp decline. Based on the analysis of the accounting system, this paper selects a comprehensive method to adjust the data comparability: to recalculate the total retail sales of consumer goods, to eliminate the influence of the change of the household consumption accounting method, to calculate the housing consumption of urban residents, Exclude the impact of virtual depreciation and undervaluation of owner-occupied homes. The adjusted data show that the overall consumption rate of Chinese residents in 1978-2014 was stable in the range of 45 to 50 percent, and there was no sustained decline. After the rationality of the adjusted data is verified by using the support vector regression model, this paper preliminarily discusses the theoretical and policy implications of this basic fact, which provides a certain data support for the supply-side structural reform.
【作者单位】：湖南商学院工商管理学院;湖南商学院数学与统计学院;中国社会科学院金融研究所;中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室国际政治经济学研究中心;
【基金】：国家金融与发展实验2017年度课题“供给侧结构性改革研究” 湖南省教育厅科研重点项目“发展中大国的人口、高储蓄率与经济增长研究”(编号16A116)的资助
【分类号】：F126.1

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