发展中国家侨汇与外商直接投资对经济增长的影响

发布时间：2018-04-28 11:32

本文选题：发展中国家 + 侨汇　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：国际资本流动通常被认为对经济增长非常关键。国际资本从不同来源流入,包括外商直接投资(FDI)、政府开发援助(ODA),以及近年来在经济学分析中不断引起重视的侨汇。对于外商直接投资和侨汇对经济增长影响的经验分析的结论远不是无争议的,而是复杂多变的。在这一背景下,本文旨在就一部分发展中国家外商直接投资与侨汇对经济增长的关系提供一份经验考察。本文贡献在于采用了新的面板数据、变量和不同的分析方法。本文分析了一个由33个发展中国家2000到2011年的观察数据组成的面板数据库,探讨了侨汇和外商直接投资对经济增长的影响。有关侨汇和经济增长之间关系的理论基础和实证研究指出了侨汇的两种不同路径。一是内生路径,即侨汇原因是完全的利他主义。因此由利他主义的海外移民汇入的侨汇似乎是可以预测的,也是反周期的。另一路径是组合路径,即侨汇汇回本国的原因取决于自身利益。关心自身资产组合多样化的海外移民有倾向将他们的客居国家与来源国家的金融和固定资产回报率拉平。这些侨汇表现出亲周期且有类似资本流动的行为。大量流入的侨汇预计对接受国的经济增长有潜在的积极促进效果,但侨汇对增长促进作用的整体效果从理论层面上并不明显,其积极效果是否超过消极效果是一个纯粹的经验问题。外商投资是发展中国家的一个重要的外部资金来源途径。发展中国家往往有许多资源,但由于金融、技术和竞争性管理等方面的稀缺性,他们的经济往往都很虚弱。外商直接投资在接收国开启并引入了新的管理实践、技术、知识和技能。在发展中国家,外商直接投资与经济增长之间的联系也是混合不清的。学者们仍对外商直接投资是否能促进发展中国家经济增长未达成一致意见。基于侨汇和外商直接投资对发展中国家的相对重要性,本文从实证角度考察了一组发展中国家2000年至2011年间侨汇和外商直接投资对经济增长的影响。这一分析采用了经济增长的静态和动态面板数据。首先考虑的是静态面板数据的固定效应模型,控制了发展中国家面板中不可观测的内生性。控制其他常规的经济增长因素后,本文发现物质资本投资、人力资本投资和金融发展对经济增长有显著的积极作用。政府消费对于本文考察时间范围内的发展中国家的经济增长有显著的消极影响。结果还表明外商直接投资对这些发展中国家的经济增长有着积极且统计意义上非常显著的促进效果。而侨汇在静态模型中的效果是负面的且统计上并不显著的,这表明侨汇对经济增长并没有直接促进作用。但是,这一估计可能的潜在问题是内生性,内生性在经济增长回归中广泛存在,一些解释变量本身就是内生的。根据相关理论,外商直接投资和侨汇都是增长的内生变量。为了纠正内生性问题,进一步考虑采用动态面板数据模型进行估计,采用了广义矩估计方法估计该模型。在动态和静止框架中,本文发现外商直接投资对样本发展中国家的经济增长有着显著的积极作用,这一结论表明外商直接投资有进一步促进样本国家的经济增长的潜力。进一步控制了模型的潜在内生性问题,本研究发现侨汇对于观测时间区间内的样本发展中国家经济增长有着显著的负面影响。这一结论表明许多侨汇接受国家无法将侨汇引导至生产用途,这些侨汇的目的也大都是利他主义的目的,而非利润驱动的。侨汇的全部收益必须通过采用适当的政策措施引导侨汇进入经济生产用途才能获得。最后,本文提供了一些政策建议以帮助发展中国家利用侨汇和外商直接投资的潜力实现可持续的经济增长。
[Abstract]:International capital flows are often considered to be crucial to economic growth. International capital flows from different sources, including foreign direct investment (FDI), government development assistance (ODA), and the remittances that have been paid more attention in economic analysis in recent years. The empirical analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and remittances on economic growth is far from the conclusion. In this context, this article aims to provide an empirical study on the relationship between foreign direct investment and remittances of a part of the developing countries on economic growth.
This paper contributes to the adoption of new panel data, variables and different analytical methods. This paper analyzes a panel database composed of 33 developing countries' observation data from 2000 to 2011, and explores the impact of remittances and foreign direct investment on economic growth. The theoretical basis and empirical analysis of the relationship between remittances and economic growth The study points out two different routes of remittances. One is the endogenous path, that is, the cause of remittances is complete altruism. Therefore, the remittances remittances from altruistic overseas immigrants seem to be predictable and countercyclical. The other path is the combination path, that is, the reasons for remittances remit to the country depend on their own interests. The diversification of overseas immigrants tends to draw the rate of return on financial and fixed assets from their home countries and countries of origin. These remittances show a pro cyclical and similar capital flow. The large influx of remittances is expected to have a potential positive effect on the economic growth of the recipient countries, but the remittances contribute to the growth of foreign remittances. The overall effect is not obvious from the theoretical level, and whether the positive effect exceeds the negative effect is purely a matter of experience.
Foreign investment is an important source of external resources for developing countries. Developing countries often have a lot of resources, but their economy is often weak because of the scarcity of financial, technical and competitive management. Foreign direct investment is opened in the receiving country and introduced into new management practice, technology, knowledge and skills. The link between FDI and economic growth in developing countries is also unclear. Scholars still have no agreement on whether FDI can promote economic growth in developing countries. Based on the relative importance of remittances and foreign direct investment to developing countries, this paper examines a group of developments from an empirical perspective. The impact of remittances and FDI on economic growth from 2000 to 2011. This analysis uses the static and dynamic panel data of economic growth. The first consideration is the fixed effect model of static panel data, which controls the inobservable endogeneity in the developing country panel. Control of other conventional economic growth factors After that, this paper finds that material capital investment, human capital investment and financial development have a significant positive effect on economic growth. The government consumption has a significant negative impact on the economic growth of developing countries in the time range. The effect of remittances in the static model is negative and not statistically significant, which indicates that remittance does not play a direct role in economic growth. However, the potential problem of this estimate is endogenous, endogeneity exists widely in the return of economic growth and some explanatory variables. According to the relevant theories, foreign direct investment and remittance are both endogenous variables of growth.
In order to correct the endogeneity problem, the dynamic panel data model is further considered and the generalized moment estimation method is used to estimate the model. In the dynamic and static framework, this paper finds that foreign direct investment has a significant positive effect on the economic growth of the sample developing countries. This conclusion shows that foreign direct investment is advanced. One step further promotes the potential of the economic growth of the sample countries and further controls the potential endogeneity of the model. This study finds that remittances have a significant negative impact on the economic growth of the sample developing countries in the interval of observation time. This conclusion shows that many remittances are unable to lead remittances to productive uses, these overseas Chinese The purpose of the remittance is most of the purpose of altruism rather than profit driven. The total income of remittances must be achieved through the adoption of appropriate policy measures to guide remittances into economic production. Finally, this article provides some policy recommendations to help developing countries to achieve the potential of using overseas remittances and foreign direct investment to achieve sustainable development. Economic growth.

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F813.6;F112.1

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