人口年龄结构对家庭财富积累的影响——基于缓冲存货理论的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 06:06

本文选题：人口年龄结构 + 家庭财富积累　；参考：《社会科学研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：居民收入、支出不确定性的大小与家庭人口年龄结构密切相关。子女数量对家庭消费储蓄决策中"缺乏耐心"的影响大于对"谨慎动机"的影响,总体效应体现为对家庭财富积累目标的负向效应;老人数量与子女数量的作用相反,体现为对家庭财富积累目标的正向效应。主要原因是子女消费被看成是家庭对未来的投资,与储蓄具有替代作用;而在既定社会保障制度下,老人数量与未来支出不确定性相关,因此,老人消费不足与当前"未富先老"的社会经济特征有密切关系。进一步的,子女数量对家庭财富积累的影响在各分位数处均为显著负向效应,并且随着分位数的提高,作用大小呈下降趋势;老人数量则在低分位数处不显著,在中、高分位数处为正,并且随着分位数的提高系数增大。其经济含义是无论家庭富裕程度如何,子女数量和家庭财富积累都具有相互替代效应,而只有当家庭达到一定富裕程度,老人数量对财富积累才能产生影响,并随家庭富裕程度的提高,老人数量对财富积累的正向作用也越来越强。城镇居民相比农村家庭具有较强的预防性储蓄动机;子女数量则对城、乡家庭财富积累都具有负向效应,且对城镇家庭的作用效果更大;老人数量对城镇家庭财富积累有正向作用,而对农村家庭财富积累没有显著影响。
[Abstract]:The uncertainty of household income and expenditure is closely related to the age structure of the family population. The influence of the number of children on "impatience" in household consumption and savings decision-making is greater than that on "cautious motivation", and the overall effect is the negative effect on the goal of family wealth accumulation, while the number of the elderly has the opposite effect on the number of children. It is reflected in the positive effect on the goal of household wealth accumulation. The main reason is that children's consumption is seen as a family investment in the future and a substitute for savings, whereas under the established social security system, the number of older persons is associated with uncertainty about future expenditures, and therefore, The insufficient consumption of the elderly is closely related to the social and economic characteristics of the old before becoming rich. Furthermore, the influence of the number of children on the accumulation of family wealth was significantly negative at each quantile, and with the increase of the quantile, the effect tended to decrease, while the number of the elderly was not significant at the low quartile. The high quartile is positive and the coefficient increases with the increase of the quantile. The economic implication is that, regardless of the degree of family wealth, the number of children and the accumulation of family wealth have a mutual substitution effect, but only when the family reaches a certain level of wealth, the number of the elderly can have an impact on the accumulation of wealth. With the increase of family affluence, the number of the elderly has a positive effect on the accumulation of wealth. The number of children has negative effect on the accumulation of wealth in urban and rural households, and it has more effect on urban families. The number of the elderly has a positive effect on the accumulation of wealth in urban households, but has no significant effect on the accumulation of wealth in rural households.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济学院;山东师范大学经济学院;山东大学消费与发展研究所;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“建立扩大消费需求的长效机制研究”(11JZD016) 国家社会科学基金重点项目“构建扩大消费长效机制研究”(12AJY006)
【分类号】：C924.2;F126.1

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