中国区域经济实力与发展水平实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 01:29

本文选题：区域经济 + 指标体系　；参考：《河南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济全球化，区域一体化的浪潮迭起，在这经济迅速发展的形势下怎样应对区域问题并对应解决，这是一个非常重要又热门的课题。中国既为最大的发展中国家，又为最大的社会主义国家，它的区域经济一直面临着巨大的机遇，更面临着前所未有的挑战。结合新的历史背景，敢于正视并认真研究中国在新时期的区域经济发展问题，为协调发展，优化中国区域经济结构，区域经济增长方式转变具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。国内外学者关于中国经济发展差距的研究主要有对区域经济差距的现状考察和差异产生的原因分析,也有通过分析区域经济差异的过去表现来预测未来差异的走向。由于研究对象不同、分析的期间不同、选择的指标不同和研究的方法不同,现有的研究没有形成一致的研究结论。区域经济的相关理论主要以区域经济非均衡、区域经济增长与差异两个方面为基础。本文进行实证分析需要的指标都遵循科学客观性、全面重要性、层次性、易得性、动态可比性等五大原则，本文采用最传统的以省级行政单位的分法进行研究，根据本文研究需要，选择17个统计指标，各指标或发展的各个环节也是不一致的，区域经济发展是一个综合的范畴，单一指标不能反映全部，所以必须计算出一个综合指数，这样才能对区域市区总体发展水平有个判断和排序。并对GDP、居民收入、居民储蓄存款余额、进出口总值、地方公共财政预算收入、社会消费品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资、城镇化率等指标进行了一定的解释，本体系采取常用的专家评定法（Delphi法）和因子分析结合来确定指标的权重。中国区域经济实证研究主要分为三个部分。首先选用代表经济综合实力的七个指标，，它们分别是GDP、居民总收入、居民储蓄存款余额、进出口总额、财政一般预算收入、社会消费品零售总额、全社会固定资产投资，综合分析单项指标的重要程度，采取专家投票方法，确定这七个指标的权重，建立区域经济综合实力指标体系，以2000年为基期，对比研究全国31个省市区2000年、2005年、2010年、2012年的区域经济综合实力发展指数及排名。然后选用代表经济综合发展水平的十个指标，它们分别是人均GDP、人均居民收入、人均居民储蓄存款余额、人均进出口总额、人均财政一般预算收入、人均社会消费品零售总额、人均全社会固定资产投资、第三产业占GDP比重、居民收入占GDP比重、城镇化率，综合分析单项指标的重要程度，采取专家投票方法，确定这十个指标的权重，建立区域经济发展水平指标体系，以2000年为基期，实证研究全国31个省市区2000年、2005年、2010年、2012年的综合发展指数及排名。最后结合对比2012年中国区域经济发展水平的因子分析，共同得出中国区域之间的经济综合实力与发展水平在不断地提高的同时也是不均衡的，而且这种不均衡仍在持续。造成我国区域经济发展不均衡的原因是复杂的，系统来看，导致这种不均衡发展的态势是由自然禀赋、历史政策、经济结构、资本技术、人口、对外开放等多种因素综合作用的结果，然后根据这些影响因素提出了相关的政策建议，主要有完善基础设施建设、系统区域政策体系，深化经济体制改革、继续优化产业结构，持续加大教育科研投资、健全人才保障体系，助推城乡经济良性互动，扩大对外开放区域。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization and the wave of regional integration, it is a very important and hot topic how to deal with the regional problems and solve them in the situation of rapid economic development. China is the largest developing country and the largest socialist country. Its regional economy has been faced with great opportunities and more face to face. Facing the unprecedented challenge, combining with the new historical background, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to face and seriously study the problems of regional economic development in China in the new period. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for the coordinated development, the optimization of China's regional economic structure and the transformation of regional economic growth mode.
The domestic and foreign scholars' research on the gap between China's economic development mainly includes the analysis of the current situation of regional economic gap and the cause analysis of the difference, and the trend of predicting the future difference through the analysis of the past performance of regional economic differences. The existing research has not formed a consistent research conclusion. The related theories of regional economy are mainly based on two aspects of regional economic disequilibrium, regional economic growth and differences.
In this paper, the indicators need to follow the five principles of scientific objectivity, overall importance, level, availability, dynamic comparability, and so on. This paper uses the most traditional division of administrative units at the provincial level to study. According to the needs of this paper, 17 statistical indicators are selected, and the various links of each index or development are also inconsistent, Regional economic development is a comprehensive category, the single index can not reflect the whole, so we must calculate a comprehensive index, so that the overall development level of regional urban areas can be judged and ordered. And GDP, resident income, resident savings balance, total value of import and export, local public finance budget income, social consumer goods retail. The total social fixed assets investment, the urbanization rate and other indicators have been explained. The system adopts the common expert evaluation method (Delphi method) and factor analysis to determine the weight of the index.
The empirical study of China's regional economy is divided into three parts. First, we choose seven indexes representing the comprehensive strength of the economy. They are GDP, the total income of the residents, the balance of the savings deposits, the total import and export, the general budget income, the total retail sales of social consumer goods, the investment in the fixed assets of the whole society, and the comprehensive analysis of the single index. Degree, adopt expert voting method, determine the weight of these seven indexes, establish the index system of regional economic comprehensive strength, take 2000 as the base period, compare and study the regional economic comprehensive strength development index and ranking of the 31 provinces and municipalities in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012, and choose the ten indexes representing the comprehensive economic development level. They are per capita GDP, per capita income, per capita household savings balance, per capita total import and export, per capita gross financial budget income, per capita retail sales of social consumer goods, per capita social fixed assets investment, the proportion of the third industry in the proportion of GDP, the income of residents in the GDP ratio, the urbanization rate, the importance of the comprehensive analysis of single index, and the importance of the comprehensive analysis of the single index. Take the method of expert voting to determine the weight of the ten indexes and establish the index system of regional economic development level. Taking 2000 as the base period, the comprehensive development index and ranking of the 31 provinces and municipalities in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2012 are empirically studied. Finally, the factor analysis on the development level of regional economic development in China in 2012 is used to draw China together. The comprehensive economic strength and development level between regions are uneven and uneven.
The cause of the unbalanced development of China's regional economic development is complicated. In a systematic view, the situation of this unbalanced development is the result of a combination of natural endowment, historical policy, economic structure, capital technology, population and opening to the outside world. Then, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward according to these factors, which are mainly finished. The construction of good infrastructure, the system of regional policy, the deepening of the reform of the economic system, the continuous optimization of the industrial structure, the continuous increase of investment in education and scientific research, the improvement of the system of personnel protection, the positive interaction between the urban and rural economy and the expansion of the open area.

【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

【参考文献】