地方政府债务对地区经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 09:30

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 经济增长　；参考：《江西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当政府的财政面临着巨大的压力时,政府就会通过一定的方式向民间进行借贷,这样一来,这些借贷就成了一般意义上而言的政府债务,它是政府发挥自身行政职能的一个有利促进剂。对于这些债务,一般而言,政府会使用在教育或者其他公共基础设施的建设上。但是,在真正的实施过程中,政府对于所筹集债务的运用和管理都与事先的计划有着很大的差距,这种使用上的问题使得很多国家发生了或多或少的债务危机。本文为了更好地研究地方政府债务对经济增长的影响,先进行了理论研究和现状分析,接着进行实证研究,最后得出结论并给出相对应的政策建议。全文总共分为六章:第一章首先介绍了本文的研究背景和意义,简单地阐述了笔者为什么要进行本文的写作,本文的写作到底有怎么样的意义。接着在第二小节,我们对国外和国内学者关于债务与经济发展关系的研究成果分别进行了梳理。最后笔者详细介绍了本文的研究方法,并且对本文的研究内容和研究框架进行了描述。第二章论述了地方政府债务与地方经济发展的理论基础,即公债理论,并具体叙述了公债有效理论、公债无效理论以及公债中性理论,为下面研究地进行提供了理论基础。第三章则是地方债务影响地区经济增长的定性分析,也就是机理分析,我们分别从短期的波动以及长期的增长来分别进行阐述,进而对债务与经济发展之间的关系有了一个定性的认识。第四章则分为三个小节,第一小节论述了目前我国地方政府债务的现状,第二小节对我国地方政府债务中所存在的一些问题进行了阐述,接着第三小节就对上一小节所描述的问题进行了详细的分析。第五章是实证研究部分,也是整个文章的重点所在,所选取的数据为2009—2013年30个省市区的数据。本章第一节先对全国30个省市区的债务与经济发展情况进行统计分析,之后将全国划分为东部、中部和西部三个区域,以区域为单位进行统计分析。第二节运用静态面板模型和动态面板模型对债务与经济发展之间的关系进行回归,并对回归结果进行分析,静态面板回归选取了随机效应模型,动态面板回归则用了系统GMM估计方法。第六章对前面的理论研究和实证研究部分进行了总结,并有针对性地提出政策建议。通过全文的研究,我们得出了如下结论。(1)在我国地方政府债务中,存在着地方政府债务的风险主要集中于银行、地方政府债务的管理缺少专门机构、地方政府债务的资金没有被合理使用、有些地方政府债务规模超过了其偿还能力、短期内地方政府债务面临流动性风险等问题,这些问题都制约着地方债务对地方经济发展促进作用的发挥。(2)从30个省市的统计分析中发现,债务规模最大的省市,其GDP总量并不一定最大。但总体上仍表现为债务规模较大的省市,其GDP总量一般也比较大。在我国三大区域中,中部和东部的负债率相对西部低很多,但是东部地区的债务规模远超于中部和西部,东部、中部和西部的负债额逐年增高,而且幅度较高。(3)根据30个省市区数据的统计分析我们发现,地方政府债务与地区经济增长之间存在正向关系。(4)通过文中的计量检验可以得到,债务率与经济增长之间有着互为因果的关系,而且经济增长率对债务率的促进作用高于债务率对经济增长率的促进作用。不管是通过静态面板数据模型得到的结果,还是通过系统GMM回归出来的结果,均显示债务率对于经济增长率有着显著的正向性,而这一结论与我们采用30个省2009—2013年的数据所做出来的统计分析结果有相似之处。同时加入滞后项后回归出来的系数比静态面板回归出来的系数要大,表明债务率对经济增长率的促进作用,相比短期而言,长期更加明显。区域异质性检验表明,从我国东部到中部,再到西部,债务率对经济增长率的作用不断减弱。
[Abstract]:When the government's finances are under great pressure, the government will lend to the people in a certain way, so that these loans are generally government debt, which is a favorable promoter for the government to play its own administrative functions. However, in the process of real implementation, the government has a big gap between the use and management of the debt raised and the prior plan. This problem has caused many countries to have a more or less debt crisis. In order to better study the economic growth of local government debt. The influence, first carries on the theoretical research and the present situation analysis, then carries on the empirical study, finally draws the conclusion and gives the corresponding policy suggestion. The full text is divided into six chapters altogether: the first chapter first introduces the research background and significance of this article, and briefly explains why the writer should enter the writing of this article, what is the writing of this article in the end Then in the second section, we have combed the research results of foreign and domestic scholars on the relationship between debt and economic development respectively. Finally, the author describes the research method in detail, and describes the research content and research framework of this article. The second chapter discusses the local government debt and the local economic development. The theoretical basis, namely the theory of public debt, describes the effective theory of the public debt, the theory of the invalidity of the public debt and the neutral theory of the public debt, which provides the theoretical basis for the following research. The third chapter is the qualitative analysis of the economic growth of the local debt affected areas, that is, the mechanism analysis, and we are from short-term fluctuations and long-term growth, respectively. There is a qualitative understanding of the relationship between debt and economic development. The fourth chapter is divided into three sections. The first section discusses the current situation of local government debt in China, and the second sections explain some of the problems existing in local government debt in our country, and then the third sections are on the first small section. The fifth chapter is an empirical study and the focus of the whole article. The selected data is the data of 30 provinces and cities from 2009 to 2013. The first section of this chapter first analyzes the debt and economic development of the 30 provinces and municipalities in the country, and then divides the country into the East, the central part, and the central part. The three regions in the West and the western region, take the region as the unit to carry out statistical analysis. The second section uses static panel model and dynamic panel model to return the relationship between debt and economic development, and analyses the results of the regression. Static panel regression selects the random effect model, dynamic panel regression uses the system GMM estimation method. Sixth The chapter summarizes the previous theoretical research and empirical research, and puts forward the policy suggestions. Through the full text, we draw the following conclusions. (1) in our local government debt, the risk of local government debt is mainly concentrated in the bank, the management of local government debt is lack of specialized agencies and local government. The capital of the government debt is not reasonably used, some local government debt is more than its repayment ability, and the local government debt is facing the liquidity risk in the short term. These problems restrict the role of local debt to promote the local economic development. (2) the largest province of debt is found in the statistical analysis of 30 provinces and cities. The total amount of GDP in the city is not necessarily the largest. But on the whole, the total amount of the debt is still larger, and the total amount of GDP is generally relatively large. In the three major regions of China, the debt ratio in the middle and East is much lower than that in the West, but the debt scale in the eastern region is far more than the central and West, and the debt of the East, the central and the west is increasing year by year. And (3) we found that there is a positive relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth according to the statistical analysis of 30 provinces and urban areas. (4) the relationship between the debt rate and economic growth is mutually beneficial, and the economic growth rate is higher than the debt rate. The effect of service rate on economic growth rate, whether by the results obtained through the static panel data model or by the result of the system GMM regression, shows that the debt rate has a significant positive effect on the economic growth rate, and this conclusion is with the statistical analysis that we used in the data of 30 provinces from 2009 to 2013. At the same time, the coefficient of regression is larger than that of the static panel, which indicates that the debt rate is more obvious to the economic growth rate than in the short term. The regional heterogeneity test shows that the role of the debt rate to the economic growth rate is decreasing from the east to the middle of China, and then to the West. Weak.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5;F127

【参考文献】