安徽省城镇化与经济增长之间的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 06:05

本文选题：安徽省 + 城镇化　；参考：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：城镇化是我们人类社会发展的重要的历史过程,也是近现代以来推动人类经济社会前进的动力。一个国家或地区的城镇化水平跟这个国家或地区的经济增长之间有着十分密切的联系,城镇化的发展影响着经济增长,而经济增长也推动着城镇化的发展。城镇作为经济增长的一个重要载体,能够很好的积累资本、集聚经济要素以及最佳劳动分工等等,而促进经济增长的因素中也就包括了资本的积累、集聚经济以及劳动分工等,所以可以说城镇化是经济增长的重要动力。城镇化是我们人类社会发展的一个必然趋势,大势所趋之下,城镇化也就名副其实的成了一个国家或地区的现代化以及工业化的重要标志。城镇化是经济增长的最持久、最强大的内生动力,所以城镇化发展也是我国现代化建设的一项艰巨的任务,推进城镇化进程是我国实现现代化的一项重大战略选择。城镇化建设的一个总体思路就是：顺应时代发展潮流,跟随农村剩余劳动力向城市转移的步伐,在提高城镇的承载能力同时,提高农村劳动生产率,然后让农民能够在城镇里幸福的生活,现代农业也同样能够得到更大的发展。我国经济的快速增长,使得我们已经无法阻挡城镇化的步伐。十六大、十七大以及十八大都明确提出了加快城镇化的发展步伐的口号。安徽省作为中部六省之一,是人口大省,也是农业大省。改革开放以来,安徽省经过30多年的发展不仅经济增长方面取得了很大的进步,城镇化发展也取得了显著的成绩。目前,安徽正处于经济社会发展的一个重要阶段,加快推进城镇化发展对于安徽省经济增长以及社会进步来说变得越来越重要,研究城镇化与经济增长之间的关系是意义深远。本文首先综述了城镇化与经济增长的相关文献,然后在分析安徽省城镇化建设与经济增长现状的基础上,采用安徽省及各市地区城镇化以及经济增长的相关数据,先是对安徽省全省城镇化以及经济增长的现状进行定性的分析,然后利用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等计量经济分析手段,基于向量自回归模型以及扩展生产函数模型,深入探讨了安徽省及安徽省各市城镇化与经济增长之间的定量关系。通过本文的实证分析,得到了这样一种结论,安徽省经济增长能够很好的促进城镇化水平的提高,然而城镇化对经济增长的作用却并没有相应的那么显著,或者可以说,城镇化对经济增长的推动作用需要在一个相当长的时间内体现出来。通过分析发现安徽省城镇化发展与经济增长之间没有呈现出一种良性的互动作用。通过分析又发现,由于城市的地理位置等的差异,不同地区的城镇化与经济增长的定量关系也存在着十分明显的差别,城镇化水平越高,那么它所能够带来的经济效应也就越高,通过分析发现安徽省的部分地区己经表现出了这种现象,可是对于安徽省大多数地区而言,虽然说城镇化与经济增长之间有着正相关,但是系数不能通过显著性检验。在这些地区中,城镇化对经济增长的贡献度不高,经济增长较多的还是依靠其他的一些影响因素。所以,为了让安徽省经济能够继续保持高速增长,城镇化能够得到进一步发展,安徽省城镇化与经济增长两者之间能够很好的发挥相互促进作用,我们需要因地制宜地采取合适的措施。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important historical process for the development of our human society. It is also the motive force to advance the economic and social progress of human being. The urbanization level of a country or region has a very close connection with the economic growth of this country or region. The development of urbanization affects economic growth, and the economic growth is also promoted. As an important carrier of economic growth, cities and towns, as an important carrier of economic growth, can accumulate capital well, gather economic factors as well as the best labor division, and the factors that promote economic growth include the accumulation of capital, agglomeration economy and labor division, so it can be said that urbanization is the important motive force of economic growth. Urbanization is an inevitable trend of the development of our human society. Under the trend of the times, urbanization has become an important symbol of the modernization and industrialization of a country or region. Urbanization is the most lasting and most powerful internal motive force of economic growth. Therefore, the development of urbanization is also a hardship of China's modernization. The great task, promoting the process of urbanization is a major strategic choice for our country to realize modernization. The overall idea of urbanization is to follow the trend of the times, follow the pace of the transfer of surplus rural labor to the city, improve the carrying capacity of the cities and towns, improve the productivity of rural labor, and then let the peasants be able to A happy life in a town can also bring greater development to modern agriculture.
The rapid growth of our country's economy makes it impossible to stop the pace of urbanization. Sixteen, the Seventeenth National Congress and the eighteen most clearly put forward the slogan of speeding up the development of urbanization. As one of the six provinces in Central China, Anhui province is a large province of population and a big province of agriculture. Since the reform and reform, the development of Anhui province has not only been developed for more than 30 years. Great progress has been made in economic growth and remarkable achievements in the development of urbanization. At present, Anhui is in an important stage of economic and social development. Accelerating the development of urbanization is becoming more and more important for the economic growth and social progress of Anhui province. It is significant to study the relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Profound.
This article first summarizes the related literature of urbanization and economic growth, and then on the basis of the analysis of the urbanization and economic growth in Anhui province and the related data of urbanization and economic growth in Anhui province and all the cities and regions, the first is the qualitative analysis of the urbanization of Anhui province and the current situation of economic growth. By cointegration test, Grainger causality test, impulse response function and other econometric analysis means, based on vector autoregressive model and extended production function model, the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic growth in Anhui and Anhui provinces is discussed.
Through the empirical analysis of this paper, we get the conclusion that the economic growth of Anhui province can improve the level of urbanization very well. However, the role of urbanization on economic growth is not so significant, or it can be said that the impetus of urbanization to economic growth should be reflected in a long period of time. Through analysis, it is found that there is no positive interaction between urbanization and economic growth in Anhui province. Through the analysis, the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic growth in different regions is distinctly different because of the differences in urban geographical location. The higher the level of urbanization, the higher the level of urbanization, then it can The higher the economic effect is, it is found that some areas of Anhui have shown this phenomenon through analysis, but for most parts of Anhui Province, although there is a positive correlation between urbanization and economic growth, the coefficient can not be tested by a significant test. In these areas, the contribution of urbanization to economic growth is made. Therefore, in order to keep the economy of Anhui province continue to grow at a high speed, urbanization can be further developed, and the urbanization and economic growth of Anhui province can play a good role in promoting each other. We need to take appropriate measures to adapt to local conditions. Measures.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127

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