中部地区产业结构演进与新型城镇化互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 18:24

本文选题：中部地区 + 产业结构演进　；参考：《南昌大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：产业结构演进与新型城镇化是当前经济建设的主题。研究两者的发展特征及两者之间的相互关系对于正确把握新常态下我国区域结构调整,清醒认识区域内部存在的结构性矛盾,进而谋划新时期区域经济发展战略,培育增强经济持续增长的内生活力和持久动力都具有重要意义。现阶段,中部地区新型城镇化水平与全国平均水平还有一定的差距,产业结构也存在结构性偏差,因此,在新常态下厘清两者互动机制,推动两者互动发展至关重要。本文首先通过文献回顾,梳理了产业结构演进与新型城镇化的内涵,构建了两者指标体系,进而对两者的互动机理进行了理论分析,并建立了两者互动框架。其次,选择中部地区为研究对象,综合运用熵权法和加权汇总的方法对两者发展水平分别进行了测度。再次,梳理了两者互动的内涵与表征,并运用耦合协调度模型对两者互动状态进行了测度与分析。最后通过相关性分析、平稳性检验、协整分析、Granger因果检验等计量方法对产业结构演进与新型城镇化的互动关系进行了实证分析。分析结果发现:(1)现阶段,两者互动发展协调性不够,缺乏一定的持续互动发展能力;(2)新型城镇化滞后于产业结构演进;(3)第一产业在很大程度上阻碍了新型城镇化的进程,第二产业是目前新型城镇化发展的主要动力,第三产业发展不足未能有效促进新型城镇化发展;(4)新型城镇化指数与产值结构指数、就业结构指数之间存在协整关系;(5)新型城镇化指数是产值结构指数、就业结构指数的Granger原因,但反向不具有这种关系,产值结构指数与就业结构指数互为Granger原因。进一步分析认为导致这些问题的主要原因有三点:(1)中部地区农业人口众多,存在先天制约;(2)产业发展不合理,第三产业发展不足,劳动人口未能合理转移;(3)城镇功能不完善,未能发挥产业集聚的规模效应。据此,本文从推进技术创新、促进要素流动、完善城镇功能和提供政策保障四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以期促进中部地区产业结构演进与新型城镇化良性互动,共同发展。
[Abstract]:The evolution of industrial structure and new urbanization are the theme of current economic construction. The study of the development characteristics of the two and the relationship between them are helpful to grasp correctly the adjustment of regional structure in China under the new normal, to soberly understand the structural contradictions existing within the region, and then to plan the development strategy of regional economy in the new period. It is of great significance to cultivate endogenous vitality and lasting power to enhance sustained economic growth. At present, there is still a certain gap between the new urbanization level and the national average level in the central region, and the industrial structure also has structural deviation. Therefore, it is very important to clarify the interaction mechanism between the two in the new normal state and promote their interactive development. This paper firstly combs the connotation of industrial structure evolution and new urbanization through literature review, constructs the index system of both, and then makes a theoretical analysis of the interaction mechanism of the two, and establishes the interactive framework between the two. Secondly, the central region is chosen as the research object, and the development level of the two regions is measured by the entropy weight method and the weighted summary method. Thirdly, the connotation and representation of the interaction are combed, and the interaction state is measured and analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model. Finally, by means of correlation analysis, stability test, cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the interactive relationship between industrial structure evolution and new urbanization. The results show that at the present stage, the interaction between the two is not coordinated enough, and they lack the ability to develop continuously. (2) the new type of urbanization lags behind the evolution of industrial structure and the first industry largely hinders the process of new type urbanization. The secondary industry is the main driving force for the development of the new type of urbanization at present. The lack of development of the tertiary industry has failed to effectively promote the development of the new type of urbanization. (4) the new type of urbanization index and the output value structure index. The new type of urbanization index is the Granger cause of output value structure index and employment structure index, but there is no such relationship in reverse. The output value structure index and employment structure index are mutual Granger reasons. Further analysis shows that the main reasons leading to these problems are three points: 1) the central region has a large agricultural population, there are congenital constraints on the development of the industry, the development of the tertiary industry is insufficient, and the working population fails to reasonably transfer the functions of the cities and towns. Fail to exert the scale effect of industrial agglomeration. Accordingly, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions from four aspects of promoting technological innovation, promoting the flow of elements, perfecting the functions of cities and towns and providing policy guarantee, in order to promote the evolution of industrial structure in the central region and the benign interaction between the new type of urbanization and the development of the industrial structure in the central region.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

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