金融危机背景下我国城镇居民消费行为对房价波动的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 21:38

本文选题：房价 + 消费者行为　；参考：《湘潭大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融危机背景下，我国居民的消费行为发生了很多变化，也表现出一些新的特征。居民消费行为的新变化是金融危机背景下我国经济发展的客观结果，研究居民消费行为，对无论是产业结构调整和资源的优化配置，引导居民健康消费，，促进生产、消费、投资三方面协调发展，帮助政府制定合理科学的宏观经济政策，确保国民经济持续健康运行发展有着十分重要的现实意义。本文将房价、消费行为、消费者收入等变量引入替代效应与收入效应模型、一般市场均衡模型中，构建出在综合考虑各个因素的条件下，能够检验金融危机背景下我国城镇居民消费行为对房价波动的动态面板模型，采用我国31个省市的年度面板数据进行多角度的实证分析。研究显示：①金融危机后的2008年至2012年的这几年，我国城镇居民受到较强消费习惯与收入敏感性的影响；②从全国层面来看金融危机背景下居民服装消费行为对房价的波动为负，储蓄行为对房价的影响为正，交通消费行为对房价的影响为正，服务消费对房价呈正相关，食品消费对房价的影响为负，控制变量（可支配收入、婚姻、教育）对房价的影响：收入对房价的影响为正，教育对房价的影响为正，婚姻对房价的影响为负；③我国城镇居民的消费行为对房价的影响存在较明显的地区差异性。区域实证结果表明：在东部地区，发展中心应放在降低储蓄率、刺激消费。中部地区第三产业服务业欠发达，生活现代化程度较低，故对房价的影响较小。所以中部地区发展的重点是加强服务业的带动作用。西部地区经济发展水平不发达，教育水平欠佳、人口密度较小。故西部地方的重心应放在发展经济、提高教育水平。
[Abstract]:Under the background of the financial crisis, the consumption behavior of Chinese residents has changed a lot, and also showed some new characteristics. The new change of resident's consumption behavior is the objective result of our country's economic development under the background of the financial crisis. To study the resident's consumption behavior, whether it is the adjustment of the industrial structure and the optimization of the allocation of resources, to guide the residents' healthy consumption, to promote the production and consumption, It is of great practical significance to coordinate the development of the three aspects of investment, to help the government to formulate rational and scientific macroeconomic policies and to ensure the sustained and healthy development of the national economy. In this paper, the variables of house price, consumer behavior and consumer income are introduced into the model of substitution effect and income effect, and the general market equilibrium model is constructed under the condition that all factors are considered synthetically. It can test the dynamic panel model of urban residents' consumption behavior to the fluctuation of house price under the background of financial crisis, and use the annual panel data of 31 provinces and cities to carry on the multi-angle empirical analysis. The study shows that in the years from 2008 to 2012 after the financial crisis, urban residents in China were influenced by strong consumption habits and income sensitivity. 2 under the background of the financial crisis, the fluctuation of household clothing consumption behavior on house price is negative, the influence of saving behavior on house price is positive, the influence of traffic consumption behavior on house price is positive, and service consumption has positive correlation with housing price. The influence of food consumption on house price is negative, the influence of controlling variable (disposable income, marriage, education) on house price is negative: the influence of income on house price is positive, that of education on house price is positive, and that of marriage on house price is negative; There are obvious regional differences in the influence of the consumption behavior of urban residents on housing prices in China. Regional empirical results show that: in the eastern region, the center of development should be to reduce the savings rate and stimulate consumption. The third industry service industry in the central region is underdeveloped and the degree of life modernization is low, so it has little influence on house price. So the focus of the development of the central region is to strengthen the leading role of the service industry. The western region's economic development level is not developed, the education level is poor, the population density is small. Therefore, the focus of the western region should be on the development of the economy, improve the level of education.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F126.1;F299.23;F224

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