基于模糊综合评价法的新疆包容性增长水平测度及评价

发布时间：2018-05-17 02:45

本文选题：包容性增长 + 包容度　；参考：《青海民族研究》2017年02期

【摘要】：包容性增长是新疆在一带一路的机遇中突破自身发展又兼顾边疆长治久安的必然选择。本文运用模糊隶属度综合评价法及综合评价模型从经济包容度、社会包容、生态包容、文化包容四个方面对新疆2005-2014年包容性增长水平进行测度,并运用指数平滑法对其未来发展趋势进行动态预测。研究发现:新疆包容性增长水平十年闻呈现低幅匀速上升趋势;2005-2011年新疆包容性增长水平处于"勉强包容"阶段,2012-2014年新疆包容性增长水平处于"基本包容"阶段;从分类包容度指数走势角度分析,社会的健康发展是新疆包容性增长的核心动力,生态环境恶化是新疆包容性增长的制约因素;短期内新疆包容性增长水平将保持不断上升的趋势,但增速迟缓,表明新疆未来发展仍有较大阻力。
[Abstract]:Inclusive growth is an inevitable choice for Xinjiang to break through its own development in the opportunity of Belt and Road and to take into account the long-term stability of the frontier. In this paper, the comprehensive evaluation method of fuzzy membership degree and the comprehensive evaluation model are used to measure the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang in 2005-2014 from four aspects: economic inclusion, social inclusion, ecological inclusion and cultural inclusion. The exponential smoothing method is used to predict the future development trend. It is found that the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang in 2005-2011 is in the stage of "barely inclusive" and the inclusive growth level of Xinjiang from 2012-2014 to 2012-2014 is in the "basic inclusive" stage. From the angle of the trend of classification tolerance index, the healthy development of society is the core motive force of inclusive growth in Xinjiang, and the deterioration of ecological environment is the restrictive factor of inclusive growth in Xinjiang. Inclusive growth in Xinjiang will remain on the upward trend in the short term, but growth is slow, suggesting greater resistance to future development in Xinjiang.
【作者单位】：石河子大学;
【基金】：国家社科基金一般项目《基于包容性增长的新疆南疆三地州居民幸福感提升研究》(批准号:14BJY204)阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F127

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