中国省际资本回报率与投资过度

发布时间：2018-05-18 11:23

本文选题：消除不确定性 + 资本回报率　；参考：《经济研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：本文在现有宏观层面测算资本回报率的方法的基础上进行改进,将风险因素纳入基本模型探索消除不确定性的资本回报率的测算方法,并进一步分两个层次考察我国是否存在投资过度。通过采用1993—2013年中国29个省份的面板数据进行实证研究,可以发现:(1)消除不确定性的资本回报率指标优于资本回报率指标;(2)省际的消除不确定性的资本回报率处于8%到15%的区间范围;(3)区域间消除不确定性的资本回报率的时间趋势一致,但绝对大小存在显著差异,随着经济发展阶段不断上升其表现出明显的"倒U型"特征;(4)中国的投资过度问题亟需重视,其中河北等9省已出现第二层次投资过度,北京等12省已接近第二层次投资过度的临界水平,余下8省没有达到第二层次的投资过度。
[Abstract]:On the basis of the existing methods of calculating the rate of return on capital at the macro level, this paper introduces the risk factor into the basic model to explore the method of calculating the rate of return of capital which eliminates the uncertainty. And further two levels to investigate whether there is excessive investment in our country. By using panel data from 29 provinces in China from 1993 to 2013, It can be found that: 1) the index of capital return to eliminate uncertainty is better than the index of return on capital among provinces. The return on capital of the province is in the range of 8% to 15%) and the rate of return on capital among regions is better than that of the index of return on capital of eliminating uncertainty. The time trend is the same, However, there is a significant difference in absolute size. As the economic development stage continues to rise, it shows an obvious "inverted U-shaped" characteristic. (4) the problem of excessive investment in China needs to be paid close attention to, among which 9 provinces such as Hebei and other provinces have already experienced the second level of overinvestment. Twelve provinces, such as Beijing, are close to the critical level of second-tier overinvestment, while the remaining eight have not reached the second-tier excess.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDC011) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790031);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(16YJA790003)的资助
【分类号】：F127

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