对外贸易对河北省经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-19 09:52

本文选题：河北省 + 对外贸易　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国经过改革开放30多年的发展，社会主义市场经济体制得到确立，经济增长长期处于较高水平，对外贸易也取得长足发展。河北省作为沿海经济大省，对外贸易应当在经济发展过程中起着重要的推动作用。然而河北省对外贸易对经济增长的贡献率却低于其他沿海开放城市，甚至不如某些内陆省份，如何才能提高河北省对外贸易水平，提高对外贸易对经济增长的贡献率是本文解决的首要问题。本文遵循提出问题，分析问题，解决问题的步骤。首先分析河北省近30年的对外贸易发展状况，发现对外贸易对河北省经济增长的贡献远低于山东、辽宁、江苏等其他沿海省份。是什么原因导致河北省对外贸易发展举步维艰？针对这一问题，，本文从定性和定量两个角度进行分析。定性分析主要以理论研究为主，在理论上，本文介绍了亚当·斯密和大卫·李嘉图的优势理论，以及要素禀赋理论。根据上述理论，我们可以从分工水平、资源禀赋等角度分析河北省对外贸易发展状况，河北省拥有丰富的物产资源和良好的港口条件，因此对外贸易发展水平不高的主要原因来自分工水平较低，由于分工的不明晰导致了产业结构和贸易结构的不合理，最终影响了对外贸易对经济增长的促进作用。定量分析则主要是运用模型来分析近30年河北省对外贸易与经济增长相关数据并得出结论。本文选取了从1980年到2010年的数据，通过ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等计量经济模型对这些数据进行检验，得出一系列结论：河北省经济增长与对外贸易之间存在密切联系，但是进口、出口和河北省地区生产总值之间的联系并不是双向的。研究结果表明，出口对河北省经济增长的贡献要大于进口，且出口与经济增长是相互拉动的，进口能力的不足削弱了对外贸易对经济增长的影响，其原因可归结为贸易政策不合理、投资环境不好、产业基础薄弱等等。最后本文根据上述研究结果提出了促进对外贸易对河北省经济增长影响的具体措施。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, the socialist market economic system has been established, the economic growth has been in a high level for a long time, and foreign trade has also made great progress. As a big coastal province, foreign trade should play an important role in economic development. However, the contribution rate of Hebei's foreign trade to economic growth is lower than that of other coastal open cities, and even worse than that of some inland provinces. How to improve the foreign trade level of Hebei Province? Improving the contribution rate of foreign trade to economic growth is the most important problem to be solved in this paper. This paper follows the steps of problem raising, problem analysis and problem solving. Firstly, the paper analyzes the development of foreign trade in Hebei Province in the past 30 years, and finds that the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth of Hebei Province is far lower than that of other coastal provinces such as Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangsu and so on. What is the reason for the difficult development of foreign trade in Hebei Province? In view of this problem, this article carries on the analysis from the qualitative and the quantitative two angles. Qualitative analysis mainly focuses on theoretical research. In theory, this paper introduces Adam Smith and David Ricardo's advantage theory, as well as factor endowment theory. According to the above theory, we can analyze the development of foreign trade in Hebei Province from the angle of division of labor level, resource endowment and so on. Hebei Province has abundant product resources and good port conditions. Therefore, the main reason for the low level of foreign trade development comes from the low level of division of labor. The unclear division of labor leads to unreasonable industrial structure and trade structure, and finally affects the promoting effect of foreign trade on economic growth. The quantitative analysis mainly uses the model to analyze the data related to the foreign trade and economic growth of Hebei Province in the past 30 years and draws a conclusion. This paper selects the data from 1980 to 2010 to test these data through econometric models such as ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. A series of conclusions are drawn: there is a close relationship between economic growth and foreign trade in Hebei Province, but the relationship between import, export and regional GDP of Hebei Province is not two-way. The results show that the contribution of export to economic growth of Hebei Province is greater than that of imports, and that export and economic growth are mutually stimulating, and the lack of import capacity weakens the impact of foreign trade on economic growth. The reasons can be attributed to unreasonable trade policies, poor investment environment, weak industrial base and so on. Finally, according to the above research results, this paper puts forward the specific measures to promote the impact of foreign trade on the economic growth of Hebei Province.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F752.8

【引证文献】