碳排放约束条件下中国经济增长路径统计研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 19:32

  本文选题：经济目标吸引力 + 碳排放　； 参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：经济增长问题是经济学中永恒主题和持续热点,对于驱动经济增长的根本动因的争论更是其中的焦点。西方主流增长理论经历了从“资本决定论”到“技术决定论”再到“制度决定论”的变迁过程。主流增长理论对大部分经济增长现象具有较强的解释力,但仍然存在明显缺陷：一是无法解释经济增长的发生和变速现象；二是经济增长的长期趋势和短期波动之间未能建立必要的联系；三是低估甚至忽略了政府作为领导者角色,在长期经济增长中的作用。改革开放后,中国经济增长奇迹引起各国学者的广泛关注,在生产函数中,无论是资本积累、劳动力还是技术进步都不足以解释中国经济增长奇迹。将经济增长视为一种运动,变速增长则是运动状态的改变,运动状态改变意味着产生了外部力。各生产要素中,能够产生“力”的要素无疑是由“人”构成的劳动力。然而,主流增长理论中的劳动力最初局限为劳动力数量,卢卡斯的人力资源模型将劳动力质量纳入增长模型,但仍然忽视了“人”的主观能动性。换言之,主流增长理论对劳动力只考虑了其能不能干的问题,而忽视了愿不愿干以及愿意付出多大努力干的问题。为此,本文引入经济目标吸引力模型对主流增长理论加以改进以阐释中国的经济增长。经济迅速增长带来的一个问题是碳排放总量快速攀升跃居世界第一,而碳排放是引起全球气候变暖问题的主要原因。随着社会各界对气候变化问题的关注度不断提高,碳排放成为制约经济增长的一个重要因素。2009年中国政府做出减排承诺,论文以该承诺为约束条件探索中国经济增长路径问题。为此,全面分析了中国碳排放现状、碳排放与经济之间的关系、碳排放的影响因素等,并基于主流增长理论、气候变化经济学理论以及经济目标吸引力模型建立有约束的经济增长模型,在效用最大化过程中求解中国经济增长的最优路径、以及相关的投资研发路径、碳排放强度路径和碳排放总量路径,并结合本文的主要结论以及中国的现实实际提出针对性建议。
[Abstract]:The problem of economic growth is an eternal theme and a persistent hot topic in economics, and the debate about the fundamental motivation of economic growth is the focus. The western mainstream growth theory has experienced a process from capital determinism to technological determinism to institutional determinism. The mainstream growth theory has a strong explanatory power to most economic growth phenomena, but there are still obvious defects: first, it can not explain the occurrence of economic growth and the phenomenon of speed change; The second is the failure to establish the necessary connection between the long-term trend of economic growth and the short-term fluctuation, and the third is to underestimate or even ignore the role of the government as a leader in the long-term economic growth. After the reform and opening up, the miracle of China's economic growth has attracted the attention of scholars all over the world. In the production function, the accumulation of capital, labor force and technological progress are not enough to explain the miracle of China's economic growth. Economic growth is regarded as a kind of movement, and variable speed growth is the change of motion state, which means that external force is produced. Among the factors of production, the elements that can produce "force" are undoubtedly the labor force made up of "human". However, the labor force in the mainstream growth theory is initially limited to the number of labor force. Lucas' human resource model takes the quality of labor force into the growth model, but still neglects the subjective initiative of "human". In other words, mainstream growth theory only considers whether the labor force can do it or not, ignoring the question of whether or not it is willing to do it and how much it is willing to do. Therefore, this paper introduces the attraction model of economic objectives to improve the mainstream growth theory to explain China's economic growth. One problem with rapid economic growth is the rapid rise in total carbon emissions, which are the main cause of global warming. With the increasing attention to climate change, carbon emissions have become an important factor restricting economic growth. In 2009, the Chinese government made a commitment to reduce emissions, and this commitment is used as a constraint to explore the path of China's economic growth. Therefore, this paper comprehensively analyzes the current situation of carbon emissions in China, the relationship between carbon emissions and the economy, and the influencing factors of carbon emissions, and based on the mainstream growth theory, The economic theory of climate change and the attraction model of economic objectives establish a constrained economic growth model to solve the optimal path of China's economic growth in the process of maximizing utility, as well as the related investment and development path. Carbon emission intensity path and total carbon emission path, combined with the main conclusions of this paper and the reality of China, put forward targeted recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124
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本文编号：1911359