居民家庭消费支出变化对上海市2020年低碳发展的影响

发布时间：2018-05-21 14:34

本文选题：居民 + 消费支出　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年05期

【摘要】：随着居民生活水平的不断提高,其家庭消费支出模式也会发生变化,由此将引发与家庭部门相关的能源消耗及碳排放等变化。选取上海为案例区,开展基于居民家庭消费支出变化对区域低碳发展影响的预测研究,采用可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE)预测分析了2020年上海的居民消费支出,并量化了由此引发的工业产出、贸易以及就业形势的变化,并着重分析了与之相应的能源消耗和碳排放的变化,旨在厘清收入增加与居民消费模式变化的关系,居民消费模式变化与能源消耗和碳排放变化的关系。同时,设置了高、低碳情景,进一步剖析了居民消费支出对区域发展的影响。此外,还进一步模拟了上海市居民消费支出变化对中国其它地区的消费支出的变化的影响,并进一步剖析了在这种变化影响下的其它地区的工业产出、贸易、就业形势、能源消耗以及碳排放的变化。研究结果表明,随着收入水平的提升及消费模式的转变,2020年上海的总消费支出比2007年拟增长1.81倍,其中增长最快的消费支出项目是交通运输及通信业;由于消费支出模式的转变。工业产出、就业、贸易量、能源消耗以及碳排放也呈增长的态势,分别较2007年增长1.83倍、0.17倍、2.03倍、2.63倍以及2.71倍。在有碳约束的情况下.低碳情景较之高碳情景会减少0.14%的CDP损失。同时低碳情景下将节省7.5×10~7t标准煤,减少38%的碳排放量。中国其它地区由于居民家庭消费模式的转变所引起的各类指标的变化趋势与上海趋同。通过研究结果可以得出。为了实现上海市未来区域的低碳发展,引导居民向低碳生活模式发展十分必要,政府应着重从居民绿色出行和绿色消费两方面进行倡导。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of living standards, household consumption expenditure patterns will change, which will lead to changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions related to the household sector. Taking Shanghai as a case study, based on the prediction of the impact of household consumption expenditure changes on regional low-carbon development, this paper uses a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to forecast and analyze the residential consumption expenditure in Shanghai in 2020. It also quantifies the changes in industrial output, trade and employment, and analyzes the corresponding changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions in order to clarify the relationship between income increase and changes in consumption patterns. The relationship between changes in consumption patterns and changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions. At the same time, set up high, low-carbon scenarios, and further analyze the impact of consumer expenditure on regional development. In addition, it further simulates the impact of changes in Shanghai residents' consumption expenditure on the changes in consumer spending in other regions of China, and further analyzes the industrial output, trade, and employment situation in other regions under the influence of this change. Changes in energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results show that with the improvement of income level and the change of consumption pattern, the total consumption expenditure of Shanghai in 2020 will increase by 1.81 times as compared with 2007. The fastest growing item of consumption expenditure is transportation and communication industry. As a result of the shift in consumer spending patterns. Industrial output, employment, trade, energy consumption and carbon emissions are also on the rise, up 1.83 times, 0.17 times, 2.03 times and 2.71 times, respectively, compared with 2007. In the case of carbon constraints. Low carbon scenario can reduce CDP loss by 0. 14% compared with high carbon scenario. At the same time, 7.5 脳 10 ~ (7) t standard coal will be saved and the carbon emission will be reduced by 38% under the low carbon scenario. The change trend of various indicators caused by the change of household consumption pattern in other regions of China is similar to that of Shanghai. The results of the study can be obtained. In order to realize the low carbon development in the future area of Shanghai, it is necessary to guide the residents to develop to the low carbon living mode. The government should focus on advocating green travel and green consumption of the residents.
【作者单位】：中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所;中国科学院大学;日本国立环境研究所;上海交通大学;
【基金】：国家杰出青年基金“资源环境管理与政策分析”(编号:71325006) 国家自然科学基金国际合作项目“中欧循环经济与资源效率”(编号:71311140172) 日本环境部环境研究及技术发展基金(编号:S-12-2 and 2-1402)
【分类号】：X22;F126.1

【相似文献】