我国产业结构变动对潜在经济增长率的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-26 05:43

本文选题：产业结构 + 合理化　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来，我国经济发展迅速，成就斐然。但是粗放型的经济增长方式使得我国经济矛盾日益突出，经济发展不可持续。同时，2008年开始的美国金融危机波及全球实体经济。经济发展的内外部变化都促使产业结构要做出相应调整。一方面，，潜在GDP反映一国的经济增长潜力，它与一国长期经济增长和短期经济波动密切相关。另一方面，产业结构与经济增长也有着直接的相关关系。可见，经济发展轨迹与经济增长潜力是否匹配决定着未来中国的经济走势。对产业结构变动与潜在经济增长率之间进行研究，可以充分认识和理解产业结构优化对于我国潜在经济增长率的影响，对推动经济持续健康增长具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先评述了产业结构与经济增长、潜在经济增长率的关系。然后在分析我国产业结构变动现状的基础上，从产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化两个角度来衡量我国产业结构是如何变动的。最后通过构建产业结构高级化和合理化的度量指标，采用计量经济学的分析方法实证分析了二者对我国潜在经济增长率的影响。研究结果表明我国产业结构合理化能够促进潜在经济增长，但是产业结构高级化并未明显促进潜在经济增长。因此，本文建议在产业结构合理化的基础上应积极推动产业结构高级化，并对此提出相应政策措施。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country's economy has developed rapidly and has made great achievements. However, the extensive economic growth mode has made the economic contradiction of our country increasingly prominent and the economic development is not sustainable. At the same time, the American financial crisis started in 2008 has affected the global real economy. The internal and external changes in economic development all promote the corresponding adjustment of the industrial structure. The potential GDP reflects the economic growth potential of a country, which is closely related to a country's long-term economic growth and short-term economic fluctuations. On the other hand, there is a direct correlation between industrial structure and economic growth. It can be seen that the match between economic development track and economic growth potential determines the economic trend of China in the future. The study of dynamic and potential economic growth rate can fully understand and understand the impact of industrial structure optimization on the potential economic growth rate in China, which is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the sustained and healthy growth of the economy.
This paper first reviews the relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth and the potential economic growth rate. Then, on the basis of the analysis of the current situation of the industrial structure change in China, this paper measures how the industrial structure is changed from the two angles of rationalization of industrial structure and the advanced industrial structure. Finally, the advanced and rationalized industrial structure is constructed. The results show that the rationalization of the industrial structure in China can promote the potential economic growth, but the advanced industrial structure does not significantly promote the potential economic growth. Therefore, this paper suggests that the rationalization of the industrial structure should be rationalized in this paper. We should actively promote the upgrading of industrial structure and put forward corresponding policies and measures.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F121.3

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