中国经济潜在增长率的估计、变化特征及其逻辑

发布时间：2018-05-26 09:49

本文选题：潜在增长率 + HP滤波法　；参考：《上海经济研究》2017年12期

【摘要】：潜在增长率的估计是宏观经济分析的重要工具,该文采取HP滤波法和状态空间法估计中国总体的潜在增长率和各地区的潜在增长率水平,归纳潜在增长率的变化特征。研究发现:(1)市场改革和经济开放是中国经济潜在增长的推动力量。各地区潜在经济增长率在时间上存在着明显的收敛趋势,在空间上呈现潜在增长水平相似的地区集聚和区域间异质性凸显同时并存的现象。(2)规模报酬递增是维持经济增长潜力的逻辑,市场开放是实现规模报酬递增的关键渠道,城市是规模报酬递增实现的场所,因而经济活动将不断向城市集聚。中国潜在经济增长的动力就在于规模报酬递增效应的发挥,有必要进一步采取合理有效的政策对源于规模报酬递增的经济红利进行公平分配。
[Abstract]:The estimation of potential growth rate is an important tool for macroeconomic analysis. In this paper, HP filtering method and state space method are used to estimate the total potential growth rate of China and the level of potential growth rate in various regions. The study found that market reform and economic openness are potential drivers of China's economic growth. There is an obvious convergence trend in the time of the potential economic growth rate in various regions. Regional agglomeration and interregional heterogeneity, which show similar potential growth level in space, are the same phenomenon. Scale reward increase is the logic to maintain the potential of economic growth. Market opening is the key channel to realize scale return increase. The city is the place where the scale returns increase, therefore the economic activity will gather to the city unceasingly. The motive force of China's potential economic growth lies in the exertion of the effect of increasing returns on scale. It is necessary to adopt reasonable and effective policies to distribute the economic dividends arising from the increasing returns of scale.
【作者单位】：华东师范大学经济学院;华东师范大学中国经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目:“推进经济结构战略性调整的重点、难点与路径研究”(编号13ZD&016)的资助
【分类号】：F124

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