“一带一路”对沿线区域的预期经济效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 14:24

本文选题：一带一路 + GTAP动态递推　；参考：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”开创了中国对外开放的全新格局,其中贸易畅通与设施联通是在该倡议推进过程中的两项重要举措。中国与沿线区域共商共建自由贸易区的步伐正逐步加快,同时基础设施建设的合作正如火如荼地进行,各方面的努力将激发区域合作潜力。为探讨“一带一路”对沿线区域的预期经济效应,本文以沿线六大区域作为主要研究区域,采用GTAP进行量化分析并从宏微观角度分别就居民福利、贸易状况、实际GDP增长率、各行业贸易、产出水平及动态经济效应六个方面阐述该倡议的预期经济效应。研究结果表明:(1)“一带一路”的推进将对沿线区域的经济增长和福利产生不同影响,福利改善最大的是蒙俄地区,实际GDP增长最大的是东南亚;(2)通过减免关税与加强基础设施建设,沿线区域的经贸合作水平将得到显著提升,西亚、蒙俄、中亚的产业结构将发生深刻变化,主要区域的贸易条件均将得到改善;(3)“一带一路”实施将对不同行业产生复杂的影响,将对中国纺织服装鞋帽制品行业正向影响最显著,而非金属及其制品等行业将遭受一定的损失。国内政府、企业与社会应适时引导可能遭受损失的行业做出调整以适应更加开放的国际环境,同时短期内适当引导国内资本流向中东欧尚具潜在投资价值的国家。扩展FTA战略时应遵循“量体裁衣”原则,确保谈判结果的福利效应。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road" has created a new pattern of China's opening to the outside world, in which smooth trade and facilities connectivity are two important measures in the process of promoting the initiative. China is speeding up the pace of building a free trade zone with the region along the route, and the cooperation of infrastructure construction is in full swing. The efforts of all aspects will stimulate the potential of regional cooperation. In order to discuss the expected economic effect of "Belt and Road" on the area along the route, this paper takes the six major regions along the route as the main research area, uses GTAP to carry on the quantitative analysis, and from the macro and micro angle separately discusses the resident welfare, the trade situation, the real GDP growth rate. This paper expounds the expected economic effects of this initiative from six aspects: trade, output level and dynamic economic effect. The research results show that the promotion of "Belt and Road" will have different effects on the economic growth and welfare of the areas along the route. The biggest improvement in welfare is in the region of Mongolia and Russia. The biggest increase in real GDP is in Southeast Asia, where tariff relief and infrastructure construction are strengthened. The level of economic and trade cooperation along the route will be significantly improved. The industrial structure of Western Asia, Mongolia, Russia, and Central Asia will undergo profound changes. The implementation of "Belt and Road" will have a complex impact on different industries, and will have the most significant positive impact on China's textile, clothing, shoes and hats industry. And the industry such as non-metal and its product will suffer certain loss. The domestic government, enterprises and society should timely guide the industries that may suffer losses to adapt to the more open international environment, and at the same time properly guide domestic capital to the countries with potential investment value in the Middle East and Europe in the short term. When expanding FTA strategy, we should follow the principle of "tailoring" to ensure the welfare effect of negotiation result.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F114.4;F742

【参考文献】