全面两孩政策对社会经济可持续发展影响的辩证思考

发布时间：2018-05-27 17:43

  本文选题：全面两孩 + 可持续发展　； 参考：《经济学家》2016年11期

【摘要】：全面两孩政策将对社会经济的可持续发展产生长期影响。通过队列要素法和人口预测软件对我国人口变动趋势进行定量预测及对比分析,结果显示:全面两孩政策会使人口数量有所增长,但可能不会超过预期;该政策难以改变我国老龄化日趋严重的情况,也不足以改变劳动力供给不断下降的趋势";补偿性生育高峰"对社会经济发展也会产生一定的问题和压力。因此,应当完善相应的政策法规,降低生育成本、提高生育意愿,加强医疗教育基础设施建设及加快产儿科和幼教力量的培养,适当延迟退休时间,发展老龄产业,以应对我国人口结构性矛盾日益严重的挑战,保障社会经济可持续发展。
[Abstract]:A comprehensive two-child policy will have a long-term impact on the sustainable development of society and economy. The quantitative prediction and comparative analysis of population change trends in China are carried out by means of cohort factor method and population prediction software. The results show that the overall two-child policy will increase the population number, but it may not exceed the expectation; This policy is difficult to change the aging situation of our country, and it is not enough to change the declining trend of labor supply. "compensatory fertility peak" will also produce certain problems and pressures on the social and economic development. Therefore, we should perfect the corresponding policies and regulations, reduce the birth cost, raise the fertility intention, strengthen the construction of the medical education infrastructure, accelerate the training of paediatrics and preschool education, delay the retirement time appropriately, and develop the industry of the aged. In order to meet the increasingly serious challenges of the structural contradiction of population in China, the sustainable development of social economy is guaranteed.
【作者单位】： 广东财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“二次人口红利与经济持续增长路径研究”(12BJL027)
【分类号】：C924.21;F124
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本文编号：1943197