基于非参数分析方法的湖南省县域经济时空演变分析

发布时间：2018-06-05 13:13

本文选题：县域经济 + 核密度分析　；参考：《湖南师范大学自然科学学报》2017年05期

【摘要】：采用核密度分析、马尔科夫链、空间马尔科夫链等非参数分析方法,分析湖南省县域经济增长的时空演变规律.研究表明:(1)整体呈现出"总体趋向分异,板块趋向收敛"的空间转移变化格局.(2)密度分布曲线经历了先向右偏移后向左偏移的转移变化;核密度值(0.6~0.8)集中区,人均GDP不断降低,表明低状态水平的县区相对更加"落后";核密度极值区则由"双核"演变到"单核",形成了一个高密度值的收敛区域.(3)湖南省4个状态水平的稳定性是高状态低状态中高状态中低状态,在由低状态到高状态的4个区域背景下,低一级状态向高一级状态转移的概率之和由小变大.最后,根据不同状态县域经济发展的水平,提出了针对性的政策建议.
[Abstract]:Non-parametric analysis methods such as nuclear density analysis, Markov chain and spatial Markov chain are used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of county economic growth in Hunan Province. The results show that the density distribution curve of the whole shows a spatial transition pattern of "general tendency towards differentiation and plate convergence". The density distribution curve has experienced a transfer change from first to right and then to the left, and the nuclear density value is 0. 60.8) in the concentration area, the per capita GDP decreases continuously. It shows that the county with low state level is more "backward", and the extreme region of nuclear density evolves from "double nucleus" to "single nucleus", forming a convergent region of high density value. 3) the stability of four state levels in Hunan Province is lower than that of high state. Medium, high, low, Under the background of four regions from low state to high state, the sum of the probability of transition from lower state to higher state changes from small to large. Finally, according to the level of county economy development in different states, the paper puts forward targeted policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：湖南师范大学资源环境科学学院;
【基金】：湖南省教育厅创新平台资助项目(I5K081)
【分类号】：F127

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