绿色低碳背景下中国产业结构调整分析

发布时间：2018-06-06 17:42

本文选题：I-表 + 优化模型　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年03期

【摘要】：中国作为世界第一的一次能源消费国以及最大的二氧化碳排放国,在巴黎世界气候大会上承诺于2030年以前单位碳强度较2005年降低60%—65%;此外,在《"十三五"规划纲要》中中国政府也明确提出,在"十三五"时期,碳排放强度较2005年基础上降低40%—45%的目标。在此背景下,本文基于最新的投入产出表构建了产业结构优化模型。通过行业的生产结构矩阵,构建出行业的能源结构消耗矩阵及碳排结构矩阵,旨在能源消耗量与二氧化碳排放量的双重约束下,得到中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案,并计算了基于现有科技水平下中国最大的碳排潜力。线性规划的结果显示:(1)中国2020年最优的产业结构调整方案可以满足国民经济总产出量最大化的目标,年均增长约为8%;且相比目标年份(2005年)二氧化碳强度下降46.93%,能源强度下降26.04%,达到"十三五"规划中的气候变化目标。在保证经济最低增速(6.5%)的前提下,中国二氧化碳的排放总量可以比优化方案再多下降约14%。(2)建筑业、交通运输及仓储业仍然是中国重要的支柱产业,在国民经济整体的占比份额仍需扩大。(3)从生产的角度看,中国产业结构必须全面向第三产业服务业转型,全面提高国民经济中第三产业的比重,尤其是加大生活服务业类部门的产出量。(4)为了满足"绿色、低碳"的约束限制,半数以上的二产部门的生产规模都应有所降低,尤其是能源部门和金属加工业部门。
[Abstract]:China, as the world's largest consumer of primary energy and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, pledged at the World Climate Conference in Paris to reduce its unit carbon intensity by 60 to 65 percent by 2030 compared with 2005. In the outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government also explicitly proposed that the intensity of carbon emissions in the 13th Five-Year Plan period should be reduced by 40% to 45% compared with 2005. Under this background, this paper constructs the industrial structure optimization model based on the latest input-output table. Through the production structure matrix of the industry, the energy structure consumption matrix and the carbon emission structure matrix of the industry are constructed. Under the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, the optimal industrial structure adjustment scheme of China in 2020 is obtained. At the same time, the maximum carbon emission potential of China is calculated based on the existing scientific and technological level. The results of linear programming show that China's optimal industrial restructuring program in 2020 can meet the goal of maximizing the total output of the national economy. Compared with the target year (2005), the carbon dioxide intensity is reduced by 46.933 percent, and the energy intensity is reduced by 26.04 percent to reach the climate change target in the 13th Five-Year Plan. On the premise of ensuring the lowest economic growth rate of 6.5%), the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions in China can be further reduced by about 14% more than the optimized scheme.) the construction industry, transportation and storage industries are still important pillar industries in China. From the point of view of production, China's industrial structure must be transformed into the tertiary industry service industry in an all-round way, and the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy must be comprehensively increased. In order to meet the restriction of "green, low carbon", more than half of the secondary production sectors should be reduced, especially in the energy sector and metal processing industry.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;首都经济贸易大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“中国低碳经济统计数据库及其量化模型研究”(批准号:14BTJ026) 国家自然科学基金项目“企业财务制度效率的自强化机制理论与实证研究”(批准号:71572008)
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.5

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