中国OFDI与产业结构调整研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 00:27

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 产业结构调整　；参考：《西南政法大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：对外直接投资是顺应经济全球化趋势的必然要求,它不仅是衡量一个国家对外经济关系的重要指标,更是一个国家在世界范围内经济地位的标志。另外合理的产业结构是经济健康发展的基础,它能够使经济更加有效地增长,更加持续地增长,因此产业结构的升级则是经济发展中不可或缺的一个环节。在新经济环境下,如何扩大对外直接投资并将其与国内的产业结构调整结合起来,并寻求一条通过对外直接投资促进产业结构升级的道路就成为了极具现实意义的研究课题。本文以OFDI对中国国内产业结构的影响作为分析对象,从理论和实证两个方面研究了两者之间的关系并力图探究中国的OFDI与现阶段中国产业结构之间的关系。本文的研究主要从三大部分展开。首先,文章在第一章对相关概念进行了界定,同时也连同第二章对国内外关于OFDI与产业结构调整之间关系的文献进行了总结,为后面的研究打下了理论基础。紧接着第三章对中国的OFDI从发展历史、行业分布、地区分布等方面进行了分析,对中国的产业结构现状也进行了结构性分析,并结合两者的现状依据前面的理论基础对OFDI影响中国产业结构的效应从正面和负面两个方面进行了影响机制的探究。其次,基于第一部分的理论分析,文章发展了钱纳里的“世界发展模型”,将OFDI作为新的解释变量纳入到了原模型中,构建了合理的计量模型。然后选用了1979-2011年的年度数据,将中国三次产业在GDP中的占比、OFDI的年流量、GDP年度总额、进出口年度总额以及中国人口总数进行了单位根检验,发现第二产业和第三产业在GDP中的占比、中国OFDI的年流量、GDP年度总额和进出口年度总额都是一阶平稳的数据,协整检验后得出了在它们之间存在长期稳定的相互关系,进行格兰杰因果关系检验后又得出OFDI是第二产业的单向格兰杰原因,是第三产业的双向格兰杰原因。最后进行回归得出了OFDI能够同时增加第二产业与第三产业的结论。最后,在理论分析和实证结果的基础上,提出如下的对策建议：加大对外直接投资的力度,促进产业结构优化；加大第三产业的投入力度,促进对外直接投资的进一步发展；积极利用技术寻求性、资源寻求性OFDI,促进国内产业结构优化。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an inevitable requirement to conform to the trend of economic globalization. It is not only an important indicator of a country's foreign economic relations, but also a symbol of a country's economic status in the world. In addition, reasonable industrial structure is the basis of healthy economic development, it can make the economy more effective growth, more sustained growth, so the upgrading of industrial structure is an indispensable link in economic development. In the new economic environment, how to expand foreign direct investment and combine it with the adjustment of domestic industrial structure, and find a way to promote the upgrading of industrial structure through foreign direct investment has become a research topic of great practical significance. This paper takes the influence of OFDI on China's domestic industrial structure as the object of analysis, studies the relationship between the two from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and tries to explore the relationship between China's OFDI and China's industrial structure at the present stage. The research of this paper mainly starts from three parts. First of all, the paper defines the related concepts in the first chapter, and summarizes the literature on the relationship between OFDI and industrial structure adjustment in the second chapter, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later research. Then the third chapter analyzes China's OFDI from the development history, industry distribution, regional distribution and so on, and also carries on the structural analysis to the present situation of China's industrial structure. According to the previous theoretical basis, the effects of OFDI on China's industrial structure are explored from both positive and negative aspects. Secondly, based on the theoretical analysis of the first part, the paper develops Chanari's "World Development Model", and takes OFDI as a new explanatory variable into the original model, and constructs a reasonable econometric model. Then, the annual data from 1979 to 2011 are used to test the annual gross domestic product (GDP) annual flow of China's three industries, the annual total of imports and exports, and the total population of China. It is found that the proportion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry in GDP, the annual total annual flow of OFDI and the annual total of imports and exports of China are all first-order stable data. After cointegration test, it is concluded that there is a long-term and stable interrelation between them. After Granger causality test, it is found that OFDI is the unidirectional Granger cause of the secondary industry and the bidirectional Granger cause of the tertiary industry. Finally, the conclusion that OFDI can increase the secondary industry and the tertiary industry at the same time is obtained by regression. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results, the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: to increase the intensity of foreign direct investment, to promote the optimization of industrial structure, to increase the investment of the tertiary industry, to promote the further development of foreign direct investment; Actively use technology seeking, resource seeking OFDI, to promote the optimization of domestic industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3

【参考文献】