外部冲击、人民币汇率与宏观经济稳定——基于块外生的SVAR模型

发布时间：2018-06-07 16:51

本文选题：外部冲击 + 外汇储备　；参考：《现代经济探讨》2017年10期

【摘要】：该文通过一个九变量块外生SVAR模型,全面讨论了三个主要外部冲击美国利率、美国收入和国际油价对中国经济的影响。研究表明:美国利率和收入冲击对我国经济的影响基本符合传统蒙代尔弗莱明模型的结论;美国货币政策对我国货币政策具有短暂的传染效应,反映了我国货币政策具有较大的独立性;国际油价冲击没有导致我国经济出现传统宏观经济学中讨论的滞胀问题。外部冲击对我国几个主要宏观经济变量均有显著影响。从相对重要性来看,美国利率冲击对我国宏观经济影响最大,分别解释了我国外汇储备波动的11.5%、汇率波动的15%、GDP波动的20%和通货膨胀波动的9%;美国收入和国际油价冲击对我国宏观经济影响相对较小。研究结果表明,2014年以来我国宏观经济增速下降很大一部分原因来自于美国不断紧缩的货币政策。美联储未来的加息政策将对我国宏观经济稳定带来重要挑战。
[Abstract]:Through a nine variable block exogenous SVAR model, this paper comprehensively discusses three major external shocks to the US interest rates, the American income and the impact of international oil prices on China's economy. The study shows that the impact of American interest rate and income impact on China's economy is basically in accordance with the traditional Mundell Fleming model. The currency policy has a short transmission effect, reflecting the great independence of China's monetary policy; the impact of international oil price impact does not lead to the stagflation in the traditional macro-economy of China. External shocks have a significant impact on several major macroeconomic variables in China. China's macroeconomic impact is the largest, explaining 11.5% of China's foreign exchange reserves, 15% of exchange rate fluctuations, 20% of GDP fluctuations and 9% of inflation fluctuations, and the relatively small impact of American income and international oil price shocks on China's macro-economy. The results show that China's macroeconomic growth has fallen a large part of the reason since 2014. From the US tightening monetary policy, the Fed's future interest rate increase policy will bring important challenges to China's macroeconomic stability.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F124;F832.6

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