中国能源与经济发展关系的统计研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 20:26

本文选题：能源供给 + 能源需求　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：能源是人类社会发展和进步所必需的重要物质基础,它对世界各国经济社会发展与人民生活水平提高起着不可替代的重要作用。中国自改革开放以来,工业化、城市化快速推进,产业结构得到极大提升,经济持续高速增长,取得了世界瞩目的成就。在取得巨大经济成就的同时,中国对能源的需求也在急剧增长,已经成为世界第一大能源消费国,且能源供需缺口越来越大。中国能源产业面临内有能源结构不合理、能源利用效率低的忧患,.外有战略储备不足、受制于受制于国际能源市场的困境,已经制约了中国经济的正常发展。因此研究能源如何通过能源价格、能源效率影响经济增长以及经济增长又如何反过来影响能源的发展,对于建设具有中国特色的能源与经济可持续发展道路,具有重要意义。本文在对能源经济学理论及我国能源供给和需求现状分析的基础上,综合运用各种定量分析方法,从能源消费、能源效率、能源价格三个方面对中国能源与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,并对中国能源的需求进行了预测,提出了中国能源发展对策。首先,从能源的总储量、人均占有量、生产结构、资源分布、供给结构等方面分析了我国能源供给的现状,从能源的消费总量、人均消费量、消费结构、能源效率、对外依存度等方面分析了我国能源需求现状。在中国能源供给与需求对比的基础上,分析中国能源存在的问题和面临的挑战。其次,根据构建的能源约束下经济增长模型对中国能源消费与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明中国能源消费、资本、劳动力与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系,中国能源消费对经济发展有着显著影响,存在能源消费到经济的单向因果关系。第三,应用分位数回归和指数分解法分析了能源强度的影响因素。中国能源强度的影响因素主要有产业结构、居民消费、FDI和能源消费结构,而能源价格因被政府管制而扭曲,未发挥出应有的市场调节作用,对能源强度的作用并不显著。运用收敛模型对能源效率与经济发展之间的关系进行了实证分析,随着区域间经济发展水平差异的收敛,地区能源强度上的差距也存在收敛。第四,运用因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对中国能源价格与经济发展之间的关系进行了实证分析,能源价格与经济发展存在长期稳定关系,仅存在经济增长到能源价格的单向因果关系。第五,根据能源需求影响因素,运用情景分析法,参考中国未来发展目标,合理确定中国未来发展的三种情景,对2010一2020年中国能源需求进行预测。最后提出了中国未来能源发展对策：推进能源节约措施、优化能源消费结构、建立和完善石油储备体系以及积极开发新能源。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material foundation necessary for the development and progress of human society. It plays an irreplaceable role in the economic and social development and the improvement of people's living standards in the world. Since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has made great progress in industrialization, urbanization, industrial structure, sustained and rapid economic growth, and has made remarkable achievements in the world. At the same time, China's energy demand is growing rapidly, and it has become the world's largest energy consumer, and the gap between energy supply and demand is growing. China's energy industry is faced with irrational energy structure and low energy efficiency. Lack of foreign strategic reserves, constrained by the plight of the international energy market, has restricted the normal development of China's economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to study how energy affects economic growth through energy price, energy efficiency and how economic growth affects energy development in turn, which is of great significance to the construction of sustainable energy and economic development path with Chinese characteristics. Based on the analysis of the theory of energy economics and the current situation of energy supply and demand in China, this paper synthetically applies various quantitative analysis methods to analyze energy consumption and energy efficiency. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between energy and economic growth in China from three aspects of energy price, forecasts the energy demand of China, and puts forward some countermeasures for China's energy development. First of all, from the total reserves of energy, per capita possession, production structure, distribution of resources, supply structure and other aspects of the analysis of energy supply in China, from the total amount of energy consumption, per capita consumption, consumption structure, energy efficiency. The current situation of China's energy demand is analyzed in terms of external dependence. Based on the comparison of China's energy supply and demand, this paper analyzes the problems and challenges of China's energy supply. Secondly, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China is empirically analyzed according to the economic growth model under energy constraints. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, capital, labor force and economic development in China. China's energy consumption has a significant impact on economic development, there is a one-way causal relationship between energy consumption and economy. Thirdly, the influence factors of energy intensity were analyzed by quantile regression and exponential decomposition. The main influencing factors of China's energy intensity are industrial structure, resident consumption FDI and energy consumption structure, but the energy price is distorted by the government regulation and does not play the role of market regulation, so the effect on energy intensity is not significant. The relationship between energy efficiency and economic development is analyzed by using convergence model. With the convergence of regional economic development level, the regional energy intensity gap also converges. Fourthly, using causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, the relationship between energy price and economic development in China is analyzed empirically, and there is a long-term stable relationship between energy price and economic development. There is only one-way causality between economic growth and energy prices. Fifthly, according to the influencing factors of energy demand, using scenario analysis method and referring to the future development goal of China, three scenarios of China's future development are reasonably determined, and the energy demand of China from 2010 to 2020 is forecasted. Finally, the future energy development countermeasures of China are put forward: promoting energy saving measures, optimizing energy consumption structure, establishing and perfecting petroleum reserve system and actively developing new energy.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.2;F124

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