中美经济脱钩了吗

发布时间：2018-06-17 04:43

本文选题：中美经济 + 脱钩　；参考：《现代经济探讨》2017年06期

【摘要】：结合中美两国1992q2-2015q1季度GDP(SA)数据,应用DCC-GARCH和VAR方法实证考察中美经济脱钩问题。研究发现,中美经济并没有脱钩,而是处于全球生产分工网络价值链的不同阶段;美国经济波动对中美经济周期联动性的影响要显著大于中国,美国经济仍是中美经济关系主导;理论上,中美经济周期关联性传导渠道可能有三种:一是国际贸易渠道通过直接效应与滞后效应从正反两个方向产生作用,二是国际金融资本市场因其充分的流动性成为中美经济周期联动性的重要载体,三是全球产业分工渠道通过产业梯度与反梯度转移、离岸外包与逆向外包产生周期关联。本文试图对当下脱钩问题进行一定程度的拓展和深化,并以详实的数据有力的驳斥了"中国是国际经济波动之源头"的论调。
[Abstract]:Based on the 1992q2-2015q1 quarterly 1992q2-2015q1 data of China and the United States, this paper applies DCC-GARCH and VAR methods to examine the economic decoupling between China and the United States. The study found that the Chinese and American economies are not decoupled, but are at different stages of the global division of labor network value chain, and that the impact of US economic fluctuations on the Sino-American business cycle linkage is significantly greater than that of China. In theory, there may be three transmission channels of Sino-US business cycle relevance: one is that international trade channels produce effects from both positive and negative directions through direct effect and lag effect. The second is that the international financial capital market has become an important carrier of the Sino-American business cycle because of its sufficient liquidity. The third is that the global industrial division channels transfer through the industrial gradient and the reverse gradient, and the offshoring and reverse outsourcing produce cycle. This paper attempts to expand and deepen the current decoupling problem to a certain extent, and refutes the argument that "China is the source of international economic fluctuation" with detailed data.
【作者单位】：安徽财贸职业学院大位会计学院;南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国生产性服务业发展的战略转变和机制设计研究”(项目编号:15BJY023) 教育部社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“TPP外部约束下我国融入国际价值链分工战略研究”(项目编号:16JZD019) 安徽省职业与成人教育学会课题“经济结构调整与职业教育改革创新研究”(项目编号:CCB15002)
【分类号】：F124;F171.2

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