对外直接投资对中国工业产能过剩的化解作用研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 01:03

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 产能过剩　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国经济进入新常态,中国工业的产能过剩问题日益严峻,由潜在、局部阶段性过剩转化为实际、全局长期性过剩。而严重的产能过剩极有可能导致我国的经济被低端锁定,陷入“中等收入陷阱”。在经济发展新常态的背景下,针对较多行业出现的严重产能过剩现象,实践证明通过增加基础投资和挖掘国内消费需求来化解过剩产能的治理效果有限,国家决定通过实施新的对外开放战略,借助“一带一路”,通过对外直接投资寻求与“一带一路”相关国家进行国际产能合作,利用国际市场化解产能过剩,推动国内产能走出去。这是我国解决产能过剩问题的一种新思路。无疑,走出国门的对外直接投资如何化解产能过剩?其政策效果如何?不同类型行业的对外直接投资对产能过剩的化解效果有何差异?我国如何利用“一带一路”政策实施对外直接投资来化解产能过剩?这些都已成为现阶段值得研究的问题。本文基于产业转移理论、发展中国家对外直接投资理论,构建了理论分析框架,着力研究对外直接投资化解过剩产能的机制,从微观上分析了不同类型的OFDI化解产能过剩的机制,在宏观上从产业转移效应、产业关联效应和产业内竞争效应三个方面分析了 OFDI化解产能过剩的机制。本文首先利用随机前沿生产函数法对我国36个工业行业的产能利用率进行测度,以此度量行业产能过剩程度,分析了中国工业行业产能过剩现状。然后,以估计的产能利用率作为被解释变量,通过动态面板估计方法(SYS GMM)实证分析了 OFDI对产能过剩的化解作用,并利用交互项分析了产能过剩其他可作为产业特征的影响因素对OFDI的产能过剩化解作用的影响。结合理论分析与实证分析结果,本文得出以下结论:1、我国工业产能过剩形势严峻,向全局性过剩发展。我国的自来水的生产和供应业、煤气的生产和供应业、煤炭采选业、印刷业和记录媒介的复制、石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业、化学纤维制造业、电力.热力的生产和供应业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业等23个工业行业面临严重产能过剩。从行业大类来看,电力、燃气和水的生产及供应业产能过剩指数最高,采矿业高度产能过剩现象也较为严重,而制造业仅部分行业高度产能过剩,总体产能过剩现象最轻。2、对外直接投资对产能利用率持正向影响,对外直接投资对产能过剩具有一定的化解作用。进一步利用交互项分析产能过剩其他可作为产业特征的影响因素对OFDI化解产能过剩效果的影响,我们发现:创新投入比重增加会强化对外直接投资对产能过剩的化解作用,代表创新投入比重高的高技术行业的对外直接投资对该行业的产能过剩的化解效果更强;行业垄断程度提高会增强对外直接投资对产能过剩的化解作用,代表垄断程度高的行业的对外直接投资对该行业的产能过剩的化解效果更强;国内投资比重提高会弱化对外直接投资对产能过剩的化解作用,代表国内投资比重较高的行业的对外直接投资对该行业的产能过剩的化解效果更弱。最后,针对我国目前对外直接投资与产能过剩的现状,结合本文对OFDI化解过剩产能的理论与实证的研究,就如何通过对外直接投资化解产能过剩提出了六条政策建议。依托“一带一路”制定境外直接投资战略规划,为化解产能过剩提供政策支持;加大创新投入,鼓励高科技产业的对外直接投资;转变行业投资结构,减少国内投资,增加对外直接投资的比重;推进全面深化改革,化解体制性产能过剩;发挥和强化国际经贸平台,带动过剩产能转移;利用“一带一路”资金融通战略,为化解过剩产能提供资金支持。
[Abstract]:With the Chinese economy entering a new normal state, the problem of overcapacity in China's industry is becoming more and more severe, which is transformed from potential, partial surplus to reality, and the overall overcapacity is over the long term. And the serious overcapacity is likely to lead to the low end of China's economy and a "middle income trap". Serious overcapacity industries appeared, proved by increasing infrastructure investment and mining of domestic consumer demand to resolve the overcapacity governance effect is limited, the state decided through the implementation of the new strategy of opening to the outside world, with the help of "The Belt and Road, through foreign direct investment and seeking" The Belt and Road National International It is a new idea to solve the problem of overcapacity in China. It is a new idea to solve the problem of overcapacity in China. No doubt, how does the foreign direct investment out of the country resolve overcapacity? How is the effect of its policy? How does the effect of FDI to overcapacity in different types of industries be poor In China? How to use "the implementation of foreign direct investment to resolve the overcapacity The Belt and Road" policy? These have become the current problem worthy of study. This paper based on the theory of industrial transfer to developing countries, foreign direct investment theory, construct a theoretical analysis framework, the capacity of foreign direct investment mechanism to resolve overcapacity, This paper analyzes the mechanism of different types of OFDI dissolving overcapacity from microcosmic, and analyzes the mechanism of OFDI dissolving excess capacity from three aspects: industrial transfer effect, industrial association effect and intra industry competition effect. First of all, this paper uses random frontier production function method to measure the productivity utilization ratio of 36 industrial industries in China. In order to measure the excess capacity of industry, this paper analyzes the current situation of overcapacity in China's industrial industry. Then, using the estimated productivity utilization as an explanatory variable, the SYS GMM is used to analyze the dissolving effect of OFDI on overcapacity, and the other can be used to analyze the other industrial characteristics of excess capacity. Influence factors on the overcapacity of OFDI. Combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: 1, China's industrial overcapacity situation is severe, to global surplus development. The production and supply of tap water in China, coal gas production and supply, coal mining, printing and recording media are complex. 23 industrial industries, such as the production and supply industry such as ferrous metal smelting and calendering and processing industry, are facing serious overcapacity in the production and supply industry of the chemical fiber manufacturing industry, the chemical fiber manufacturing industry, the electric power, the thermal production and supply industry, the black metal smelting and the calendering and processing industries. The image is also more serious, and the manufacturing industry is only part of the industry high capacity overcapacity, the overall overcapacity phenomenon is the lightest.2, the foreign direct investment has a positive impact on the productivity utilization, and the foreign direct investment has a certain dissolving effect on the overcapacity. FDI defuses the effect of overcapacity, we find that the increase in the proportion of innovation investment will strengthen the dissolving effect of foreign direct investment on overcapacity. The foreign direct investment of high technology industry, which represents high proportion of innovation investment, has a stronger effect on the overcapacity of the industry; the increase of industry monopoly will enhance foreign direct investment. The dissolving effect on overcapacity is that the foreign direct investment, which represents high monopoly industries, has a stronger effect on the overcapacity of the industry, and the increase in the proportion of domestic investment will weaken the dissolving effect of foreign direct investment on overcapacity. Finally, in view of the current situation of our country's current FDI and overcapacity, and combining the theoretical and Empirical Study of OFDI to dissolve excess capacity, this paper puts forward six policy suggestions on how to resolve overcapacity through foreign direct investment. To provide policy support for overcapacity overcapacity, increase innovation investment, encourage foreign direct investment in high-tech industries, change industry investment structure, reduce domestic investment and increase the proportion of foreign direct investment; promote comprehensive deepening of reform, disintegrate and disintegrate production capacity overcapacity; play and strengthen the international economic and trade platform to promote the transfer of surplus capacity; "Belt and Road Initiative" financing strategy, in order to resolve the excess capacity to provide financial support.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424;F125

【参考文献】