云南产业结构变化与碳排放关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 19:01

本文选题：云南 + 产业结构　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,世界人口增长快速,各国的经济、城镇化也都在持续发展,导致能源资源消耗不断增加。而在能源和资源消费的过程中,二氧化碳的排放也在逐年的增加,致使全球气候在变暖,已经严重影响到人们的生存环境。所以,各国在环境问题领域达成了某些共识,如要降低温室气体的产生、要积极探索人类经济活动的低碳化发展模式。各国能源消费构成、经济增长速度、经济发展方式以及污染释放物的多少在很大程度上是由该国的产业结构层次决定的。经济发展方式粗放,处于工业化的初级阶段,能源消耗量大,利用率低下,碳排放量大,环境污染严重,都说明产业结构发展的层次低。产业结构层次越高,能源消费会减小,第二产业占的比重也相应降低,碳排放量也随之下降。从最新的研究成果知,各国产业结构的构成状况对碳排放的影响相当大,要实现碳排放下降的目标,重点是各产业内部结构的优化。但是目前针对分析云南地区产业结构对碳排放影响的文献较少,因此,在低碳约束下,该研究对云南产业结构优化具有非常重大的意义。本文构建向量自回归模型,对云南三次产业结构与碳排放关系进行实证分析,结果表明二者存在长期协整关系,从碳排放的脉冲响应结果知:从长期看,第一产业的低碳化发展有利于碳排放的减少;不论短期还是长期,来自第二产业变化的冲击对碳排放的影响均表现为负面抑制作用,说明随着第二产业结构的优化,碳排放在不断减少;从短期看,云南第三产业对碳排放的影响为先增加后减少,从长期看,第三产业促进碳排放增加,但冲击程度不相同。由碳排放的方差分解知:长期来看,云南碳排放变化除来自自身的影响外,第一产业来源最小、第二产业来源最大、其次是第三产业,应该大力促进二、三产业结构的升级从而减少对碳排放来源的影响。在实证研究的基础上,论文进一步分析云南产业发展与碳排放存在的主要问题,提出促进云南产业与碳排放协调发展的建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the rapid growth of world population, the economy of all countries, urbanization are also sustainable development, resulting in increasing consumption of energy and resources. In the process of energy and resource consumption, carbon dioxide emissions are also increasing year by year, resulting in global warming, which has seriously affected the living environment of people. Therefore, countries have reached some consensus in the field of environmental problems, such as to reduce the production of greenhouse gases, to actively explore the low carbonization development model of human economic activities. The composition of energy consumption, the rate of economic growth, the mode of economic development and the amount of pollutants released are largely determined by the industrial structure of each country. The extensive mode of economic development, in the initial stage of industrialization, the large energy consumption, low utilization rate, large carbon emissions, serious environmental pollution, all show that the level of industrial structure development is low. The higher the industrial structure, the smaller the energy consumption, the lower the proportion of the secondary industry and the lower the carbon emissions. From the latest research results, it is known that the composition of industrial structure in various countries has a considerable impact on carbon emissions. To achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction, the emphasis is on the optimization of the internal structure of each industry. However, there are few literatures on the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions in Yunnan. Therefore, under low carbon constraints, this study is of great significance to the optimization of industrial structure in Yunnan. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model is constructed to analyze the relationship between tertiary industrial structure and carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between them. The development of low carbonization in the primary industry is conducive to the reduction of carbon emissions. In the short term and long term, the impact of changes from the secondary industry on carbon emissions is negative, indicating that with the optimization of the structure of the secondary industry, In the short term, the effect of the tertiary industry on the carbon emissions in Yunnan is increased first and then decreased. In the long run, the tertiary industry promotes the increase of carbon emissions, but the impact degree is different. From the variance decomposition of carbon emissions, we know that in the long run, the change of carbon emissions in Yunnan is not only from its own influence, but also from the smallest source of the primary industry, the largest from the secondary industry, followed by the tertiary industry, which should be vigorously promoted. The upgrading of the industrial structure reduces the impact on carbon sources. On the basis of empirical research, the paper further analyzes the main problems of Yunnan industry development and carbon emissions, and puts forward some suggestions to promote the coordinated development of Yunnan industry and carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F127

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