人民币国际化发展趋势及其对我国经济的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 14:23

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 资本项目可兑换　；参考：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文在货币国际化概念界定、相关理论与模型及人民币国际化的条件、现状和路径等理论分析的基础上,对于人民币国际化发展现状进行了实证分析,并对日元国际化的经验教训进行总结和借鉴。在理论和实证分析的铺垫后,本文对于人民币国际化的现状、人民币国际化的发展趋势,人民币国际化的问题及对中国经济的影响进行了一一分析研究。并总结归纳了人民币国际化发展趋势对于中国经济的积极影响。本文的研究结论是： 1、现行外汇管制的完善、跨境贸易人民币结算大幅提高、经济实力及综合实力的稳步提升为人民币国际化提供了坚实条件,目前的时机是恰当的； 2、政府对国际化进程提供了良好的宏观运行环境,推动了人民币国际化进程,人民币的跨境贸易结算、对外投资和人民币货币完全兑换,并减少了人民币汇率波动带来的不确定性。人民币国际化在2013年以后会加快实质性步伐； 3、在通过多种渠道输出人民币的同时,必须有序开放国内金融市场,建立境外人民币的回流渠道,推进资产管理发挥其各方面优势,人民币国际化才能继续推进；而上海国际金融中心的建设正与人民币国际化发展相辅相成； 4、人民币国际化进程中不容忽视如跨境贸易人民币结算的发展不平衡、其中的套利融资等投机活动及导致内外经济体间矛盾等众多问题； 5、在充分考虑所带来的风险和问题下,人民币国际化对中国经济的影响总体来说是积极的,持续和稳定的。人民币国际化有利于构建国际化金融体系,对资产管理提供新的机遇和挑战；同时能够提高我国在全球宏观经济政策中的影响力和国际事务中的话语权,很有可能成为中国继人口红利后的下一个红利。
[Abstract]:Based on the definition of the concept of currency internationalization, the relevant theories and models, the conditions, current situation and path of RMB internationalization, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the current situation of RMB internationalization. And the yen internationalization experience and lessons are summarized and used for reference. After theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the current situation of RMB internationalization, the development trend of RMB internationalization, the problems of RMB internationalization and its impact on Chinese economy. And summarized the RMB internationalization development trend to the Chinese economy positive influence. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1, the perfection of current foreign exchange control, the substantial improvement of RMB settlement of cross-border trade, and the steady upgrading of economic strength and comprehensive strength provide a solid condition for the internationalization of RMB. The current timing is appropriate; 2. The government has provided a good macro operating environment for the internationalization process, promoted the process of RMB internationalization, RMB cross-border trade settlement, foreign investment and full convertibility of RMB currency. And reduced the volatility of the RMB exchange rate uncertainty. RMB internationalization will accelerate its substantive pace after 2013. 3. While exporting RMB through various channels, it is necessary to open the domestic financial market in an orderly manner and establish a return channel for overseas RMB. Only by promoting asset management to bring its advantages into full play can RMB internationalization continue to advance, and the construction of Shanghai International Financial Center is complementary to the development of RMB internationalization. 4. In the process of RMB internationalization, the development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade should not be ignored, such as the unbalanced development of RMB settlement in cross-border trade, speculative activities such as arbitrage financing and leading to contradictions between domestic and foreign economies, and so on. 5. After fully considering the risks and problems, the impact of RMB internationalization on China's economy is generally positive, sustained and stable. RMB internationalization is conducive to the construction of an international financial system and provides new opportunities and challenges for asset management. At the same time, it can enhance China's influence in global macroeconomic policy and its voice in international affairs. It is likely to be China's next dividend after the demographic dividend.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F832.6

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