习惯形成、灾难风险和预防性储蓄——国际比较与中国经验

发布时间：2018-06-22 07:33

本文选题：习惯形成 + 灾难风险　；参考：《当代财经》2017年02期

【摘要】：通过构建连续时间DSGE模型,考虑灾难风险因素和消费习惯形成,采用波形松弛算法,考察对比我国和世界其他7个国家面对灾难风险不确定性时最优消费函数和储蓄率,研究发现:模型拟合效果很好,在模型中融入习惯形成因素后更加稳健;灾难风险已经成为影响消费者消费和储蓄意愿改变的不确定性来源;我国居民面对灾难风险的消费和储蓄改变强于世界其他7个国家,我国居民储蓄意愿也是最高的,储蓄率高达85%;我国的最优消费函数改变比不考虑习惯形成差距变大了,但是世界其他7个国家的最优消费函数改变较前文未考虑习惯形成的差距减小了,我国居民的储蓄意愿仍然最高,储蓄率高达87%,原因是考虑了消费习惯形成,因而面对灾难时消费者会更加惧怕灾难影响其未来生活,从而储蓄意愿增强;政府采取财政补贴比例较小时,政府财政补贴对于抵御灾难风险的效应是非常强的,并且能有效降低消费者储蓄意愿,但政府采取财政补贴比例较大则会适得其反。
[Abstract]:By constructing a continuous time DSGE model and considering the formation of disaster risk factors and consumption habits, the waveform relaxation algorithm is used to investigate and compare the optimal consumption function and savings rate in China and other seven countries facing the uncertainty of disaster risk. It is found that the model fits well and is more robust after incorporating habit forming factors into the model, and disaster risk has become the source of uncertainty that affects consumers' willingness to consume and save. The consumption and savings changes of Chinese residents facing the disaster risk are stronger than those of other seven countries in the world. Our residents' willingness to save is also the highest, and the savings rate is as high as 850.The change of the optimal consumption function of our country is bigger than that of disregarding habit formation. However, the change of the optimal consumption function in the other seven countries in the world has reduced the gap between the above without taking into account the formation of habits. Our country's residents still have the highest willingness to save, and the savings rate is as high as 87. The reason is that the formation of consumption habits has been taken into account. Therefore, when faced with a disaster, consumers will be more afraid of the disaster affecting their future lives, thus increasing their willingness to save; the government will adopt a small proportion of financial subsidies, and the effect of government financial subsidies on resisting disaster risks will be very strong. And can effectively reduce consumer savings willingness, but a larger proportion of government subsidies would be counterproductive.
【作者单位】：山东工商学院统计学院;厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471154) 山东省自然科学基金资助项目(ZR2014GL004)
【分类号】：F126.1

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