浙江省财税收入与经济增长协调性研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 17:11

本文选题：财政收入 + 宏观税负　；参考：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：宏观税负与经济增长的关系一直是一个广受学界和社会关注的问题。特别是中国政府财政收入增速大大超过GDP增长速度的情况已经持续多年,这种情况引发了激烈的争论。本文回顾了国内外对相关问题的研究,从理论角度对宏观税负与经济增长的关系问题进行了分析,提出理论假设,并结合浙江省财税情况和经济发展状况,利用浙江省11个地级市的数据对浙江省财政收入与经济增长的协调性进行了实证研究。主要工作和基本结论如下：一是简要介绍了浙江省以及省内各地区的财政和经济发展状况,认为浙江省存在着经济总量大,经济发展水平较高,产业结构较合理以及民营经济发达等特征。而浙江省内11个地级市的财政和经济发展状况存在不平衡的现象,本文在研究中考虑了这种区域发展不平衡的因素。二是根据中国国情,提出了税收负担概念界定的两个原则,并以此为基础,对税收负担作如下的定义：税收负担是政府通过税收等手段对社会产出进行分配时,导致非政府部门可支配收入的份额或数量减少,由此给非政府部门形成的经济负担或经济利益的损失,它反映的是社会总产品在政府与非政府部门间的数量分配关系。三是从理论角度出发,对宏观税负影响经济增长的机制进行了探讨,分别讨论了宏观税负通过投资、消费、劳动和进出口等因素来影响经济增长的过程,最后在前人研究的基础上提出理论假设,即宏观税负对经济增长同时存在两个方向相反的正负效应,且正效应边际递减,因而存在一个最优的税负水平,使得经济增长最大化。四是设定计量模型,利用浙江省11个地级市1978-2012年的面板数据进行实证研究。研究结果支持本文提出的理论假设。之后本文利用计量结果估算相应的估计最优税负,并参考世界银行公布的国际情况,认为浙江省的宏观税负水平已经达到甚至超过最优税负区间,继续提高宏观税负将不利于经济持续增长。五是在研究的基础上,提出了构建和完善公共财政制度、推进全口径预算管理、调整财政支出结构以及注意根据地区差异调整财政政策的建议。
[Abstract]:The relationship between macro tax burden and economic growth has always been a subject of great concern by scholars and society. In particular, China's government revenue growth rate has been much faster than GDP growth rate for many years, which has caused fierce debate. This paper reviews domestic and foreign research on related issues, analyzes the relationship between macro tax burden and economic growth from a theoretical point of view, puts forward theoretical assumptions, and combines the financial and tax situation and economic development of Zhejiang Province. Based on the data of 11 prefectural cities in Zhejiang Province, this paper makes an empirical study on the coordination between fiscal revenue and economic growth in Zhejiang Province. The main work and basic conclusions are as follows: first, the financial and economic development of Zhejiang Province and its regions are briefly introduced. It is concluded that Zhejiang Province has a large economic aggregate and a relatively high level of economic development. Industrial structure is reasonable and private economy is developed and so on characteristic. However, there is imbalance in the development of finance and economy in 11 prefectural cities in Zhejiang Province. In this paper, the factors of unbalanced regional development are considered. Secondly, according to the national conditions of China, this paper puts forward two principles of defining the concept of tax burden, and on this basis, defines the tax burden as follows: tax burden is when the government distributes social output by means of taxation and other means. It leads to the reduction of the share or quantity of the disposable income of the non-governmental sector, which results in the loss of economic burden or economic benefit to the non-governmental sector, which reflects the quantitative distribution relationship between the government and the non-governmental sector of the total social product. Third, from a theoretical point of view, this paper probes into the mechanism by which the macro tax burden affects economic growth, respectively, and discusses the process of influencing economic growth through such factors as investment, consumption, labor and import and export. Finally, on the basis of previous studies, the theoretical hypothesis is put forward, that is, there are two opposite positive and negative effects on economic growth, and the marginal positive effects are decreasing, so there is an optimal tax burden level, which maximizes economic growth. Fourth, set the measurement model, using the panel data of 11 prefectural cities in Zhejiang province from 1978 to 2012 to carry out empirical research. The research results support the theoretical hypothesis proposed in this paper. Then this paper estimates the corresponding optimal tax burden by using the measurement results, and with reference to the international situation published by the World Bank, concludes that the macro tax burden level in Zhejiang Province has reached or even exceeded the optimal tax burden range. Continuing to raise the macro tax burden will not be conducive to sustained economic growth. Fifthly, on the basis of the research, the paper puts forward some suggestions to construct and perfect the public finance system, to promote the all-caliber budget management, to adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure and to pay attention to the adjustment of fiscal policy according to the regional differences.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.41;F127

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