区域人口红利对我国经济增长影响的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 21:23

本文选题：人口红利 + 抚养比　；参考：《湖南师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：人口红利与经济增长之间的关系研究始于东亚经济增长奇迹之后,1970～1995年以日本、韩国、中国台湾、中国香港为代表的东亚地区,在人口转变过程中随着劳动年龄人口比重的较快增长而实现了人口红利,并进一步提高了全社会的生产能力与储蓄水平,为经济增长创造了有利的条件。然而东亚地区的经济增长奇迹随着人口老龄化的到来而出现了一定的衰退。改革开放以来,我国在经济高速发展与计划生育政策的共同作用下,较快的实现了西方国家历经百年才实现的人口转变过程,即适龄劳动年龄人口比重较大的人口红利时期。这一时期人口红利效应创造了中国经济以年均10%左右增长率实现快速的发展,因而被称为“中国奇迹”,但是伴随着人口年龄结构的动态转变,这一红利正在发生着变化。本文是在第六次人口普查及2013年中国统计局发布的人口增长率下降、老年人口比重增大、适龄劳动人口数量下降的背景之下,以人口转变理论、经济增长理论、人口红利理论为基础,首先分析了我国东中西部地区的人口红利现状及发展趋势,并运用调整后的索洛斯旺理理论模型对劳动力供给、资本形成、人力资本积累及劳动力配置四个因素分析人口红利对经济增长的内在机理；其次从劳动力供给、储蓄及人力资本积累三个方面入手,分别建立多元线性回归模型,运用1995-2012年的数据对模型进行了实证分析,得出人口红利对我国东中西部地区的经济增长确实存在一定的作用,且东部地区的人口红利效应强于中西部地区,并对比了我国东中西部地区的人口红利对GDP的贡献度；最后提出以下五个方面的政策建议：加快经济结构与发展方式的转变、促进劳动力合理有序区域流动、全开发和提高劳动者的素质、创建老年人口就业机会和渠道、制定和实施积极的人口生育政策,为能够最大限度的挖掘我国尚余的人口红利的同时也为应对人口负债提供一些可借鉴的参考。
[Abstract]:The study on the relationship between population dividend and economic growth began after the miracle of economic growth in East Asia from 1970 to 1995, represented by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, China. With the rapid increase of the proportion of the working-age population in the process of population transformation, the population dividend has been realized, and the productive capacity and saving level of the whole society have been further improved, which has created favorable conditions for economic growth. However, the miracle of economic growth in East Asia has declined with the arrival of an aging population. Since the reform and opening up, under the joint action of the rapid development of economy and the family planning policy, our country has realized the process of population transformation in western countries after a hundred years, that is, the period of population dividend with a large proportion of working-age population. During this period, the demographic dividend effect created the rapid development of the Chinese economy at an average annual growth rate of about 10%, so it is called the "Chinese miracle", but with the dynamic change of the age structure of the population, the dividend is changing. This paper is based on the theory of population transformation and economic growth under the background of the decline of population growth rate, the increase of the proportion of the elderly population and the decrease of the number of the working-age population, issued by the sixth population Census and the China Bureau of Statistics in 2013. Based on the theory of demographic dividend, this paper first analyzes the present situation and development trend of demographic dividend in the eastern, western and central regions of China, and applies the adjusted Soloswane theory model to the supply of labor force and the formation of capital. Human capital accumulation and labor allocation are four factors to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of population dividend on economic growth. Secondly, from three aspects of labor force supply, savings and human capital accumulation, the multivariate linear regression model is established. Using the data from 1995 to 2012, the paper makes an empirical analysis of the model, and draws a conclusion that the demographic dividend has a certain effect on the economic growth of the eastern, western and central regions of China, and the effect of the demographic dividend in the eastern region is stronger than that in the central and western regions. It also compares the contribution of demographic dividend to GDP in the east, west and west of China, and finally puts forward the following five policy suggestions: speeding up the transformation of economic structure and development mode, promoting the rational and orderly regional flow of labor force. To develop and improve the quality of workers, to create employment opportunities and channels for the elderly, and to formulate and implement active population and fertility policies. In order to maximize the exploitation of the remaining population dividend, but also to deal with the population debt to provide some reference.
【学位授予单位】：湖南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;C924.2

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