金融危机后阿根廷需求结构变化与启示

发布时间：2018-06-28 01:11

本文选题：金融危机 + 阿根廷　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2007年爆发的国际金融危机，使得阿根廷国内的投资与进出口规模缩减，为了刺激经济增长，阿根廷政府以高通胀率作为代价，通过宽松的货币政策继续刺激消费增长，行政干预力度和范围也随之增加。因此消费率呈现“难以回落，危机略增”和净出口率“逐渐回落，，危机反增”的特点。投资率则呈现周期性的“稳步提升并逐渐回调”，一直不能突破有效投资的桎梏。因为阿根廷的需求结构不同于一般的发展中国家，研究危机之后该国需求结构的演进，可以为转型中的中国提供有益的借鉴。研究发现，阿根廷最终消费的增加更多的是价格上升带来的变化，而并非良性的生产机制带来实际产出数量的消耗。为满足选民的短期消费需求，政府背负庞大的结构性债务，严重阻碍长期有效投资。汇率贬值使得产业升级所需物资进口困难，反过来制约出口，尤其是制成品出口，要偿还以外币结算的债务变得更加困难。新结构主义所倡导的发展中国家发展战略，因为忽略通货膨胀的可能，所以并不适用于阿根廷经济。所认可的扩张性政策不仅没有促进产业升级，甚至令产业升级出现倒退的苗头。
[Abstract]:The international financial crisis that broke out in 2007 reduced the scale of domestic investment, imports and exports in Argentina. In order to stimulate economic growth, the Argentine government, at the expense of high inflation, continued to stimulate consumption growth through loose monetary policies. The intensity and scope of administrative intervention also increased. Therefore, the consumption rate is "difficult to fall back, the crisis slightly increased" and the net export rate "gradually fall back, the crisis against the increase" characteristics. On the other hand, the investment rate presents a periodic "steady rise and gradual pullback", and can not break through the shackles of effective investment. Since Argentina's demand structure is different from that of developing countries in general, studying the evolution of its demand structure after the crisis can provide a useful reference for China in transition. The increase in final consumption in Argentina is more the result of price increases than the consumption of real output from benign production mechanisms, the study found. To meet voters' short-term consumer needs, the government is saddled with huge structural debt, a serious impediment to long-term effective investment. Exchange rate depreciation makes it harder to import goods needed to upgrade the industry, which in turn constrains exports, especially manufactured exports, and makes it more difficult to repay debts settled in foreign currencies. The development strategy of developing countries advocated by neo-structuralism does not apply to the Argentine economy because it ignores the possibility of inflation. The accepted expansionary policy has not only failed to promote industrial upgrading, but has even led to retrogression.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F831.59;F178.3

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