我国区域间贸易与区域收入差异

发布时间：2018-06-29 17:14

本文选题：区域间铁路货运量 + 贸易引力模型　；参考：《山东大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：收入分配差异问题一直是经济学研究中的一个重要方向,收入差异过大不仅关系着我国的社会安定与团结,也关系着我国国民经济的持续健康稳健发展。本文采用泰尔指数来衡量我国各区域的收入差异。从1985年到2011年我国东中西部的泰尔指数一直呈现出上升的趋势,从-0.07到0.11。越来越大的区域收入差异,给我国社会的稳定以及经济发展埋下了巨大的隐患。2008年金融危机以后,我国乃至世界上很多国家都没有从经济衰退的阴影中恢复过来。我国对外贸易依存度由2007年的0.63降到了2011年的0.50。对外贸易的不景气,使得我国很多企业开始将目光投向国内市场,积极开拓国内市场。根据贸易引力模型估计的我国1985-2011年25省的省际贸易流量绝对值都呈现出上升的态势,但是各省的省际贸易强度都不同程度的经历了衰减的过程,并且虽有反弹,但总体呈衰弱趋势。这表明,在我国财政分权体制下,各地区之间仍存在着较高的贸易壁垒,各地区政府的地方保护主义不利于我国国内市场的一体化。随着我国国内贸易的发展,国内各区域间贸易已成为一个不可忽视的问题,但是目前还没有文献研究区域间贸易对区域收入差异的影响。本文在前人研究收入差异的影响因素的基础上,创新性地对区域间贸易与区域收入差异之间的关系进行了研究。本文首先回顾了区域贸易以及收入差异的相关理论,并且对我国国内贸易格局分别用铁路贸易数据、国内贸易净出省额数据以及利用贸易引力模型估计出来的省际贸易强度等三种方法进行了分析,结果显示我国各地区均存在“本土偏爱”现象,并且我国的各区域间的贸易存在着很大的差别,中西部地区主要处于逆差状态,东部地区只有少数省份处于顺差状态。此外,本文利用广义最小二乘法(FGLS)对我国东中西部地区1985-2011年的经济数据进行实证分析。实证结果表明,区域间贸易对于我国区域收入差异存在着显著的正相关关系,此外,对外贸易以及城镇化水平均对区域收入差异存在着显著的正相关,而经济增长则可以缩小区域收入差异。最后本文根据实证结果对我国统筹区域发展给出了自己的看法与建议。
[Abstract]:The problem of income distribution difference has always been an important direction in economic research. The excessive income difference is not only related to the social stability and unity of our country, but also related to the sustained, healthy and steady development of our national economy. This paper uses the Thiel index to measure the income difference among different regions in China. From 1985 to 2011, the Terre Index of China's east, west and west has been showing an upward trend, from -0.07 to 0.11. The growing regional income gap has brought great hidden dangers to the social stability and economic development of our country. After the financial crisis of 2008, many countries in China and the world have not recovered from the shadow of economic recession. China's foreign trade dependence dropped from 0.63 in 2007 to 0.50 in 2011. Because of the recession of foreign trade, many enterprises in our country begin to look to the domestic market and actively develop the domestic market. According to the trade gravity model, the absolute value of inter-provincial trade flows of 25 provinces in China from 1985 to 2011 showed an upward trend, but the inter-provincial trade intensity of each province experienced a process of attenuation in varying degrees, and although there was a rebound, But the overall trend is weak. This shows that there are still high trade barriers between different regions under the fiscal decentralization system in China, and the local protectionism of the regional governments is not conducive to the integration of our domestic market. With the development of China's domestic trade, domestic inter-regional trade has become a problem that can not be ignored, but there is no literature to study the impact of interregional trade on regional income difference. On the basis of the previous researches on the influencing factors of income difference, this paper studies the relationship between interregional trade and regional income difference innovatively. Firstly, this paper reviews the relevant theories of regional trade and income difference, and applies railway trade data to the domestic trade pattern of China. The data of net savings in domestic trade and the intensity of inter-provincial trade estimated by the trade gravity model are analyzed. The results show that there is a phenomenon of "local preference" in all regions of China. Moreover, there are great differences in the trade between different regions of China. The central and western regions are mainly in the state of deficit, and only a few provinces in the east are in surplus. In addition, this paper uses the generalized least square method (FGLS) to analyze the economic data from 1985 to 2011 in the east, west and west of China. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between interregional trade and regional income differences in China, in addition, the level of foreign trade and urbanization have significant positive correlation with regional income differences. And economic growth can narrow regional income gap. Finally, according to the empirical results, the author gives his own views and suggestions on the overall regional development in China.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F727;F124.7

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