人民币汇率争端与中美经济关系探析

发布时间：2018-06-29 21:38

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 中美经济关系　；参考：《外交学院》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：日本最先在国际上提出人民币升值的要求，并主张对中国施压。随着中国经济的发展，带动日本经济的复苏，日本对人民币汇率问题的态度发生变化。中国成为美国贸易逆差最大来源国以来，国际收支顺差和外汇储备不断增加。然而美国却受到新经济泡沫破灭的冲击，经济形势严峻，最大贸易逆差来源的中国成为美国经济衰退的替罪羊。随着中美之间的贸易逆差不断扩大，中国外汇储备不断增加，人民币汇率问题逐步成为影响中美关系的重要问题。本文将简要阐述人民币汇率改革历程，并对几种人民币汇率的观点进行分析，并提出自己的观点——人民币汇率的管理应该遵循“以一揽子货币为基础，有管理的浮动”的汇率机制，从本国国情和经济发展实际情况出发，有管理有调节的进行升值。从日元升值案例的分析得出启示，，提出人民币升值的方向和改革建议。同时，本文认为解决中美人民币汇率争端需要双方共同努力，通过中美战略经济对话这样双方各级别的高层官方接触渠道，在汇率政策方面加强磋商与合作是处理人民币汇率问题的有效渠道。整篇论文分为四部分：第一章是阐述汇率制度及人民币汇率改革历程；第二章阐述人民币汇率争端的演变过程。第三章阐述几种对人民币汇率的未来的发展趋势观点，并分别阐述其对中美经济及世界经济的影响。第四章阐述人民币汇率问题对中美关系的影响，并预测人民币汇率问题未来发展趋势。第五章阐明笔者的观点并对其他几种观点进行评析，在分析对比的基础上论证笔者观点，并在此论述人民币改革的发展方向。
[Abstract]:Japan was the first to demand an appreciation of the yuan internationally and advocate pressure on China. With the development of China's economy and the recovery of Japan's economy, Japan's attitude toward the RMB exchange rate has changed. Since China became the largest source of the U.S. trade deficit, the balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves have been increasing. However, the United States was hit by the bursting of the new economic bubble, the economic situation is grim, and China, the largest source of trade deficit, has become the scapegoat for the U.S. recession. As the trade deficit between China and the United States continues to expand and China's foreign exchange reserves continue to increase, the issue of the RMB exchange rate has gradually become an important issue affecting Sino-US relations. This paper briefly expounds the course of RMB exchange rate reform, analyzes several viewpoints of RMB exchange rate, and puts forward its own viewpoint that the management of RMB exchange rate should be based on a basket of currencies. A managed floating exchange rate mechanism, based on the actual situation of national conditions and economic development, has a managed and regulated appreciation. From the analysis of the case of yen appreciation, the paper puts forward the direction of RMB appreciation and reform suggestions. At the same time, this paper believes that the settlement of the RMB exchange rate dispute between China and the United States requires the joint efforts of both sides, through the China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue, which is a high-level official channel of contact between the two sides at all levels. Strengthening consultation and cooperation in exchange rate policy is an effective channel to deal with RMB exchange rate problem. The whole thesis is divided into four parts: the first chapter is about the exchange rate system and the course of RMB exchange rate reform, the second chapter is the evolution process of RMB exchange rate dispute. The third chapter expounds several views on the future development trend of RMB exchange rate and its impact on the economy of China and the United States as well as on the world economy. The fourth chapter expounds the impact of RMB exchange rate on Sino-US relations, and forecasts the future development trend of RMB exchange rate. The fifth chapter clarifies the author's viewpoint and comments on several other viewpoints, and proves the author's point of view on the basis of analysis and contrast, and discusses the developing direction of RMB reform.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F125.5

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