湖南省经济周期阶段及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 00:48

本文选题：经济周期阶段 + 影响因素　；参考：《湖南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：湖南省作为中部崛起的省份之一，近年来经济总量连续排名全国前十，经济增长速度也高于全国的整体水平。经济快速发展的同时，我们也要注意到在当前复杂的经济环境下，我省仍然面临着各种不确定因素，在提升经济增长速度的同时也要谨防相关因素波动对我省经济周期阶段的影响。本文试图在划分我省经济周期阶段的基础上，把握我省整体的经济形势，了解各影响因素对我省经济周期阶段的影响程度，为促进我省经济平稳快速发展并向繁荣阶段转换提出政策建议。本文在对相关文献进行总结和归纳的基础上，首先对影响经济周期阶段转换的各因素进行机理分析，主要从需求、供给、制度以及外部冲击四个方面进行传导机制研究。其次，采用STAR模型对我省经济周期阶段进行两阶段划分，，在此基础上采用生产函数法进行四阶段划分，对上述两阶段划分的结果进行佐证，并结合我省经济发展的典型事实，对实证结果进行调整。实证结果表明：我省经济周期阶段存在明显的非对称性，但并未出现严重的经济萧条和经济过热，经济周期阶段的转换速度较快。此外，还对湖南省与全国的经济周期进行了对比分析，结果表明：我省与全国的经济周期在一定程度上具有协同性，所经历的经济周期也具有一定的相似性，但同时我省又有自己的特点。再次，利用多元有序Probit模型，对影响湖南省经济周期阶段转换的部分因素进行边际效应分析，研究各因素对我省经济周期阶段转换的影响程度。实证结果表明：需求增加，技术创新，制度优化以及外部经济环境上行时，有利于提升我省经济周期向繁荣阶段转换的可能性。最后，结合probit模型的实证结果，立足于我省当前的经济发展情况，就如何保持我省经济平稳快速发展、促进其向繁荣阶段转换提出若干政策建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the rising provinces in central China, Hunan Province ranks among the top ten in economic output in recent years, and its economic growth rate is also higher than that of the whole country. At the same time of rapid economic development, we should also note that in the current complex economic environment, our province still faces a variety of uncertainties. At the same time, we should guard against the influence of the fluctuation of related factors on the economic cycle stage of our province. On the basis of dividing the economic cycle stage of our province, this paper attempts to grasp the overall economic situation of our province, and to understand the influence of various factors on the economic cycle stage of our province. In order to promote the steady and rapid development of the economy of our province and the transition to the prosperous stage, some policy suggestions are put forward. On the basis of summarizing and summarizing the relevant literatures, this paper firstly analyzes the mechanism of the factors that affect the transition of economic cycle, mainly from four aspects: demand, supply, institution and external shock. Secondly, we use star model to divide the economic cycle stage of our province into two stages, and on this basis, we use the production function method to divide the four stages, and prove the results of the above two stages division, and combine with the typical facts of the economic development of our province. The empirical results are adjusted. The empirical results show that there are obvious asymmetries in the economic cycle in our province, but there is no serious economic depression and overheating, and the transition speed of the economic cycle stage is relatively fast. In addition, the economic cycles of Hunan Province and the whole country are compared and analyzed. The results show that the economic cycles of Hunan Province and the whole country are synergistic to a certain extent, and the economic cycles experienced by them are similar to each other. But at the same time, our province also has its own characteristics. Thirdly, by using the multi-ordered probit model, the marginal effects of some factors affecting the economic cycle phase transition in Hunan Province are analyzed, and the degree of influence of each factor on the economic cycle phase transition in Hunan Province is studied. The empirical results show that the increase of demand, technological innovation, system optimization and the uplink of the external economic environment will help to promote the possibility of the economic cycle changing to the prosperous stage in our province. Finally, based on the empirical results of probit model, based on the current situation of economic development in our province, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to maintain the steady and rapid economic development of our province and promote its transition to prosperity stage.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F127

【参考文献】