模拟碳减排目标下绿色转型对地区经济的影响——基于DSGE模型的研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 14:05

本文选题：碳减排 + 绿色转型　；参考：《上海金融》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文尝试构建了一个包括代表性家庭、企业、政府在内的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,对绿色转型可能影响到的投资、产出、就业等宏观经济变量的冲击影响进行了测度。然后在此基础上,以新疆地区为例,根据"十三五"时期碳减排目标对绿色转型中这些变量的变化造成的成本收益进行具体的估算比较。结果发现:一方面,在推动经济绿色转型的动态过程中,需要付出一定的成本和代价,包括增量投资、潜在的宏观经济损失、岗位流失等;另一方面,在实现经济绿色转型目标后,也能产生显著的收益,包括节能收益、创造新的经济增长点和绿色就业机会、健康效益等。但总体来看,绿色转型的效益远高于成本。
[Abstract]:This paper attempts to construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which includes representative households, firms, and governments, and measures the impact of investment, output, employment and other macroeconomic variables that may be affected by green transformation. On this basis, taking Xinjiang as an example, according to the carbon emission reduction target in the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the cost and income caused by the change of these variables in the green transformation are estimated and compared concretely. The results show that, on the one hand, in the dynamic process of promoting the green transformation of the economy, we have to pay certain costs and costs, including incremental investment, potential macroeconomic losses, job losses, etc. On the other hand, After realizing the goal of economic green transformation, it can also produce significant benefits, including energy saving, new economic growth points and green employment opportunities, health benefits and so on. But overall, the benefits of green transformation are much higher than costs.
【作者单位】：新疆大学经济与管理学院;中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“资源型产业碳排放损益偏离分析及区域公平发展研究”,项目编号:71463056 新疆普通高校人文社科重点研究基地项目“资源型产业碳减排与转型升级研究”,项目编号:XJEDU010115C07
【分类号】：F127;X22

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