银行资本监管对我国经济增长的影响研究
发布时间：2018-07-13 09:24
【摘要】：资本监管是银行业实施宏观审慎监管的核心内容，而银行资本在维持稳健经营和承担风险方面发挥着非常重要的作用。参照发达国家的银行业实施资本监管的相关经验，银行资本监管会对商业银行的信贷规模产生不同程度的影响，从而对一个国家的经济增长造成冲击。理论研究表明，受到监管压力较大的银行为满足监管要求，通常减少其信贷规模。目前，我国的金融体系以商业银行间接融资为主。银行信贷构成了实体投资的主要来源，银行信贷规模变动带来的负面影响可能会造成经济的波动，侵害宏观经济增长。随着银行资本监管的不断发展，考察新阶段我国银行资本监管对银行信贷规模以及经济增长的影响具有重要的意义。 本文从银行资本监管的概念入手，对国际银行业资本监管的改革历程以及我国银行资本监管的发展状况进行介绍，，并且简述了实施银行资本监管后发达国家经济发展情况。然后从理论方面阐述了银行资本监管、信贷规模以及经济增长之间的关系与作用方式，得出商业银行为了满足银行资本监管要求通常会收缩信贷规模，这在短期内将对经济增长造成负面影响。 为了更确切地分析我国银行资本监管对经济增长的影响情况，本文还对我国银行业与整体经济2003年至2012年的情况进行了实证研究。研究分为两个层次；一是研究银行资本监管对信贷规模的影响。已有学者的研究主要运用静态方法，不能很好地体现这一过程中的动态变化规律。考虑到这一点，本文引入动态面板模型，探讨这一过程中的动态变化和影响。二是利用VAR模型和脉冲响应分析研究我国信贷规模对经济增长的冲击。通过对信贷传导途径的分析，得出银行资本监管对经济增长的影响，并在这一基础上提出相应的政策建议。 本文的实证结果表明：根据我国2003年至2012年的相关数据，（1）监管压力增大会导致资本不足银行信贷规模减少，当期监管压力值比滞后一期监管压力值对当期信贷规模的作用更大一些。（2）信贷规模对GDP的冲击效应是正向的，影响程度较弱。（3）银行资本监管压力对经济增长有一定的负面影响，但这种效应一般持续8个季度；在经济下行期，这种负面影响表现更甚。这一结论与巴塞尔委员会针对资本监管影响世界经济的测算结论相似。 针对全文的论述，本文提出三点建议：（1）构建激励相容的银行资本监管框架，提高监管效率。（2）合理选择银行资本监管路径和时机，促进经济稳步增长。（3）积极开拓融资渠道，大力推进多层次资本市场建设。
[Abstract]:Capital supervision is the core content of macro-prudential supervision in banking, and bank capital plays a very important role in maintaining stable operation and taking risks. Referring to the relevant experience of capital supervision in developed countries, bank capital supervision will have a different impact on the credit scale of commercial banks, which will impact on the economic growth of a country. Theoretical studies show that banks under heavy regulatory pressure usually reduce the size of their credit in order to meet regulatory requirements. At present, the financial system of our country mainly focuses on indirect financing of commercial banks. Bank credit is the main source of real investment, and the negative impact brought by the change of bank credit scale may cause economic fluctuation and damage macroeconomic growth. With the continuous development of bank capital supervision, it is of great significance to investigate the impact of banking capital supervision on the scale of bank credit and economic growth in China at the new stage. Starting with the concept of bank capital supervision, this paper introduces the reform course of international banking capital supervision and the development of banking capital supervision in China, and briefly describes the economic development of developed countries after the implementation of bank capital supervision. Then from the theoretical aspect, the paper expounds the relationship and function between bank capital supervision, credit scale and economic growth, and draws a conclusion that commercial banks usually shrink credit scale in order to meet the requirements of bank capital supervision. This will have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term. In order to more accurately analyze the impact of banking capital supervision on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical study of the banking industry and the overall economy from 2003 to 2012. The research is divided into two levels: one is to study the impact of bank capital supervision on the scale of credit. The existing researches mainly use static method, which can not well reflect the law of dynamic change in this process. Considering this point, the dynamic panel model is introduced to study the dynamic change and influence in this process. Second, using VAR model and impulse response analysis to study the impact of China's credit scale on economic growth. Based on the analysis of the way of credit transmission, the influence of bank capital supervision on economic growth is obtained, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. The empirical results of this paper show that: (1) the increase of regulatory pressure will lead to the reduction of credit scale of undercapitalized banks, according to the relevant data from 2003 to 2012. (2) the impact effect of credit scale on GDP is positive, and the influence degree is weak. (3) the bank capital supervision pressure has a certain negative effect on economic growth. But the effect typically lasts for eight quarters; during the downturn, the negative effects are even worse. This conclusion is similar to the Basel Committee's conclusion on the impact of capital regulation on the world economy. In view of the full text, this paper puts forward three suggestions: (1) to construct an incentive compatible framework of bank capital supervision, and to improve the efficiency of supervision; (2) to rationally choose the path and timing of bank capital supervision and promote steady economic growth; (3) to actively open up financing channels. We will vigorously promote the construction of a multi-level capital market.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.2;F124.1
本文编号：2118903
[Abstract]:Capital supervision is the core content of macro-prudential supervision in banking, and bank capital plays a very important role in maintaining stable operation and taking risks. Referring to the relevant experience of capital supervision in developed countries, bank capital supervision will have a different impact on the credit scale of commercial banks, which will impact on the economic growth of a country. Theoretical studies show that banks under heavy regulatory pressure usually reduce the size of their credit in order to meet regulatory requirements. At present, the financial system of our country mainly focuses on indirect financing of commercial banks. Bank credit is the main source of real investment, and the negative impact brought by the change of bank credit scale may cause economic fluctuation and damage macroeconomic growth. With the continuous development of bank capital supervision, it is of great significance to investigate the impact of banking capital supervision on the scale of bank credit and economic growth in China at the new stage. Starting with the concept of bank capital supervision, this paper introduces the reform course of international banking capital supervision and the development of banking capital supervision in China, and briefly describes the economic development of developed countries after the implementation of bank capital supervision. Then from the theoretical aspect, the paper expounds the relationship and function between bank capital supervision, credit scale and economic growth, and draws a conclusion that commercial banks usually shrink credit scale in order to meet the requirements of bank capital supervision. This will have a negative impact on economic growth in the short term. In order to more accurately analyze the impact of banking capital supervision on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical study of the banking industry and the overall economy from 2003 to 2012. The research is divided into two levels: one is to study the impact of bank capital supervision on the scale of credit. The existing researches mainly use static method, which can not well reflect the law of dynamic change in this process. Considering this point, the dynamic panel model is introduced to study the dynamic change and influence in this process. Second, using VAR model and impulse response analysis to study the impact of China's credit scale on economic growth. Based on the analysis of the way of credit transmission, the influence of bank capital supervision on economic growth is obtained, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. The empirical results of this paper show that: (1) the increase of regulatory pressure will lead to the reduction of credit scale of undercapitalized banks, according to the relevant data from 2003 to 2012. (2) the impact effect of credit scale on GDP is positive, and the influence degree is weak. (3) the bank capital supervision pressure has a certain negative effect on economic growth. But the effect typically lasts for eight quarters; during the downturn, the negative effects are even worse. This conclusion is similar to the Basel Committee's conclusion on the impact of capital regulation on the world economy. In view of the full text, this paper puts forward three suggestions: (1) to construct an incentive compatible framework of bank capital supervision, and to improve the efficiency of supervision; (2) to rationally choose the path and timing of bank capital supervision and promote steady economic growth; (3) to actively open up financing channels. We will vigorously promote the construction of a multi-level capital market.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.2;F124.1
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