我国信贷波动对经济波动的影响及传导机制研究
发布时间：2018-07-21 18:36
【摘要】：在我国经济运行的现阶段，每一次信贷规模的调整都会带来经济上的波动，信贷规模的扩张与收缩是国民经济运行出现波动的重要驱动因素。信贷波动对于宏观经济与微观经济的运行都会产生影响，并且影响范围大于金融领域，因此信贷的波动及趋势也能够在一定程度上体现出一国经济运行的发展趋势和宏观经济政策倾向，并且对经济波动产生影响。所以，利用目前经济运行的新数据来分析信贷波动对于我国经济波动的影响及传导机制具有重要意义，使得我们可以从深层次和更本质的原因上理解经济波动的形成，从而能够更好的运用信贷工具使其能够对经济发展起到应有的积极作用。 本文运用信贷波动与经济波动的基本理论，来分析信贷波动对于经济波动的影响及传导机制。首先对目前我国经济运行事实的分析，总结出信贷波动与经济波动的基本特征。其次采用CF滤波的分析方法，对信贷波动对经济波动产生的影响进行具体研究。再次，为了进一步对信贷波动影响经济波动的传导机制进行研究，以支出法核算GDP的构成为基础，从信贷波动对于消费、投资和净出口波动的影响出发，建立起信贷波动对于经济波动的传导机制。研究结果显示，信贷波动通过影响消费、投资和进出口来对经济波动产生影响。由此可以看出信贷波动对于经济波动的影响与重要作用，，因此应当有效合理利用信贷政策对于经济的调节作用，促进经济与金融的协调发展。
[Abstract]:At the present stage of our country's economic operation, every adjustment of credit scale will bring about economic fluctuation. The expansion and contraction of credit scale are the important driving factors for the fluctuation of national economy operation. Credit fluctuations have an impact on both macroeconomic and microeconomic operations, and the scope of impact is greater than in the financial sector. Therefore, the fluctuation and trend of credit can also reflect the development trend and macroeconomic policy tendency of a country's economic operation to a certain extent, and have an impact on the economic fluctuation. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the impact and transmission mechanism of credit fluctuations on China's economic fluctuations by using the new data of current economic operation, so that we can understand the formation of economic fluctuations from the deeper and more essential reasons. In order to make better use of credit tools, it can play a positive role in economic development. In this paper, the basic theory of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation is used to analyze the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation and its transmission mechanism. Firstly, the basic characteristics of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation are summarized by analyzing the facts of China's economic operation. Secondly, the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation is studied by CF filter. Thirdly, in order to further study the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation affecting economic fluctuation, based on the composition of GDP accounting by expenditure method, the impact of credit fluctuation on consumption, investment and net export volatility is discussed. Establish the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation to economic fluctuation. The results show that credit volatility affects economic volatility by influencing consumption, investment, and import and export. It can be seen that the impact and important role of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation, therefore, we should make effective use of credit policy to regulate the economy and promote the coordinated development of economy and finance.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F124.8
本文编号：2136459
[Abstract]:At the present stage of our country's economic operation, every adjustment of credit scale will bring about economic fluctuation. The expansion and contraction of credit scale are the important driving factors for the fluctuation of national economy operation. Credit fluctuations have an impact on both macroeconomic and microeconomic operations, and the scope of impact is greater than in the financial sector. Therefore, the fluctuation and trend of credit can also reflect the development trend and macroeconomic policy tendency of a country's economic operation to a certain extent, and have an impact on the economic fluctuation. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the impact and transmission mechanism of credit fluctuations on China's economic fluctuations by using the new data of current economic operation, so that we can understand the formation of economic fluctuations from the deeper and more essential reasons. In order to make better use of credit tools, it can play a positive role in economic development. In this paper, the basic theory of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation is used to analyze the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation and its transmission mechanism. Firstly, the basic characteristics of credit fluctuation and economic fluctuation are summarized by analyzing the facts of China's economic operation. Secondly, the influence of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation is studied by CF filter. Thirdly, in order to further study the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation affecting economic fluctuation, based on the composition of GDP accounting by expenditure method, the impact of credit fluctuation on consumption, investment and net export volatility is discussed. Establish the transmission mechanism of credit fluctuation to economic fluctuation. The results show that credit volatility affects economic volatility by influencing consumption, investment, and import and export. It can be seen that the impact and important role of credit fluctuation on economic fluctuation, therefore, we should make effective use of credit policy to regulate the economy and promote the coordinated development of economy and finance.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F124.8
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 刘树成;论中国经济周期波动的新阶段[J];经济研究;1996年11期
本文编号：2136459
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