中国工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化“五化”协调定量评价的进展与反思

发布时间：2018-08-09 06:44

【摘要】：工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化"五化"是社会现代化战略的重要支撑。"五化"协调定量评价是近年来一个研究热点。本文通过梳理和总结国内关于"五化"协调发展定量研究发现:1"五化"协调发展的内涵解读不一,评价时往往选择单指标,与综合指标差异很大。2权重计算以熵权法为主,层次分析法等主观评价方法较少,主客观评价结合更少。3协调水平的研究方法主要以耦合度、耦合协调度为主,其次为关系拟合与趋势预测法、DEA动态效率+HR模型、同步度模型等,并出现了系统性研究方法以及多种方法的交叉,研究方法的层次不断提高。4空间分析方法以空间分类与探索性空间数据分析为主,空间重心转移轨迹、空间格局的动态演进、空间趋势分析等研究方法逐渐出现。5时空分异的机理分析主要以影响因子解读与多元线性回归模型为主,空间滞后模型(SLM)、空间误差模型(SEM)、地理加权回归模型(GWR)等考虑空间因素的回归模型开始出现。但"化"的过程性、阶段性分析不足,"化"与"化"协调发展的转折点及转型机制分析不足。根据研究进展的评析,从研究范式、指标选择与权重计算、研究方法、空间分析技术、时空分异的机理解释等方面进行了反思,提出了加强"五化"协调发展的内在机理与评价维度分析、加强指标体系构建和权重设置的合理性研究、采用多元的"五化"协调度评价方法、加强空间分析技术的综合应用、促进定量解释与定性解释的结合等建议。
[Abstract]:Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization, information technology and greening are the important support of social modernization strategy. " In recent years, coordinated quantitative evaluation is a hot research topic. Through combing and summing up the quantitative research on the coordinated development of "five modernizations" in China, it is found that the connotation of the coordinated development of the "five modernizations" in the country is different from that of the "five modernizations", and the single index is often chosen in the evaluation. There are few subjective evaluation methods such as Analytic hierarchy process and subjective and objective evaluation combined with less than .3 coordination level. The main research methods are coupling degree, coupling coordination degree, relationship fitting and trend forecasting method and DEA dynamic efficiency HR model. The synchronization degree model and so on, and appeared the systematic research method as well as the many kinds of methods intersection, the research method level unceasingly raised .4 the spatial analysis method is mainly the spatial classification and the exploratory spatial data analysis, the spatial center of gravity shifts the track, The dynamic evolution of spatial pattern, spatial trend analysis and other research methods have gradually appeared in the mechanism analysis of spatio-temporal differentiation, which is mainly based on the interpretation of influence factors and multiple linear regression models. Spatial lag model (SLM), spatial error model (SEM), geo-weighted regression model (GWR) and other regression models taking spatial factors into account began to appear. However, the process and stage analysis of "transformation", the turning point of coordinated development between "transformation" and "transformation" and the analysis of transformation mechanism are insufficient. According to the analysis of the research progress, this paper reflects on the research paradigm, index selection and weight calculation, research methods, spatial analysis technology, and the explanation of the mechanism of space-time differentiation. This paper puts forward to strengthen the internal mechanism and evaluation dimension analysis of the coordinated development of "five transformation", strengthen the rational research of index system construction and weight setting, adopt the multi-element "five turns" coordination degree evaluation method, and strengthen the comprehensive application of spatial analysis technology. To promote the combination of quantitative and qualitative interpretation and other suggestions.
【作者单位】：河南大学环境与规划学院黄河中下游数字地理重点实验室;中原经济区三化协调发展河南省协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41271144) 河南省教育厅人文社科一般项目(2016-qn-016)~~
【分类号】：F124

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