基于“节约潜力值”的效率抵消总量假说修正及应用

发布时间：2018-08-09 20:44

【摘要】：本文探究了随着经济发展、资源使用效率与资源消耗量关系,重点探讨了在经济增长资源使用效率提高情境下与自然资源消耗量改变的直接关系。结合目前探讨三者关系的相关理论,探讨和修正效率抵消总量假说的指标选择、定义、公式、情境和应用范围,进而提出“节约潜力值”的概念以定量化表征实现经济产值目标通过改变效率而形成相对节约的资源量来用于未来的生产生活的资源量,并结合水资源领域的验证研究,给出可持续发展路径的建议。修正后的效率抵消总量假说注重从经济增长、衰退、停滞和自然资源使用效率的提高、降低与不变的9种不同存在情境的组合探讨了在经济生产过程中,自然资源使用效率的改变带来的资源资源使用量的变化。效率在实际生产中,与经济发展需求,政策规范及人类对于资源节约的意识紧密关联。当效率提高时,会带来在保证经济不衰退甚至发展的情境下,资源的使用量能保持不变甚至减少的良好状态,从而可以达到可持续发展状态。论文结合可持续发展理念中自然资源量在使用过程中要注重节约和可持续的要求,引入在技术等条件下带来的资源节约量—‘‘节约潜力值”概念,定性定量的分析在自然资源使用效率提高下自然资源量的使用量节约的意义。通过不同区域内的总用水和工业用水的“节约潜力值”的计算以及工业用水节水潜力值占总用水的节水潜力值占比,得出节约潜力值的贡献在水资源可持续发展中的实际意义。论文为水资源为例,选取与经济发展有代表联系的工业用水和总用水量探讨水资源的使用效率与经济发展的关系。选取(工业)产值增加值、万元(工业)增加值用水量和(工业)用水量在不同的空间尺度和不同的工业领域上对修正后的效率抵消总量假说进行验证。通过计算“节约潜力值”,不同时间序列上不同尺度上潜力值的大小,判断是否通过经济和效率的改变达到节水的状态；从发展趋向看来,是否有潜在的节水能力；并分析如果保持目前节水状态,水资源是否可持续发展。对上海、中国、美国、世界四个研究尺度上研究表明：以美国为代表的水资源效率利用较高的国家与区域相对节约的水量较多,出现水资源的量的增速小于经济增速的比例,甚至出现反比例增速的情境,表明资源使用的良性循环,是可持续发展的。由于研究案例的时间序列与数据收集及汇率换算的局限性修正后的“效率抵消总量”假说仍然需要进一步完善,而节约潜力值的理论内涵和意义也需要进一步深入探讨。本文研究得到教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“节水型社会建设研究”(项目批准号：11JZD024)的支持,部分相关研究成果以((Model of Natural Resources Utilization Efficiency and Relevant Empirical Study on Water Resources》为题,在EAAERE 2014 Congress会议上进行报告,以《资源消耗总量零增长背后的效率制衡——“效率抵消总量”假说及其在水资源领域的验证》在2014年中国环境经济学年会进行汇报,并在《环境经济学研究进展(第九卷)》杂志发表。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the relationship between resource use efficiency and resource consumption is explored with the development of economy. The direct relationship between the consumption of natural resources and the change of natural resource consumption in the situation of increasing utilization efficiency of economic resources is discussed. The relevant theories on the relationship between the three parties are discussed and the index selection, definition, and correction of the hypothesis of the total amount of efficiency offset are discussed and amended. The concept of "saving potential value" is put forward, and the concept of "saving potential value" is put forward to achieve the goal of economic output value by quantitative characterization to form relatively saving resources for future production and living resources by changing efficiency, and to give suggestions on the path of sustainable development in combination with the verification research in the field of water resources. The total amount hypothesis focuses on increasing the efficiency of economic growth, recession, stagnation and natural resources, and reducing the combination of 9 different existing situations. The change of the use of resources in the process of economic production, the change of the use efficiency of natural resources. Efficiency in production, economic development demand, policy Standards and human awareness of resource conservation are closely related. When efficiency is improved, the use of resources can be maintained and even reduced in the context of ensuring that the economy does not decline or even develop, thus achieving a state of sustainable development. This paper combines the use of natural resources in the concept of sustainable development. We should pay attention to the requirements of conservation and sustainability, and introduce the concept of "saving potential value" under the conditions of technology and so on. The qualitative and quantitative analysis is of the significance of saving the use of natural resources under the increase of the use efficiency of natural resources. Through the "saving potential value" of the total water and industrial water in different regions. The calculation and the potential value of the water saving potential of industrial water account for the total water saving potential value, and the practical significance of the contribution of the savings potential value in the sustainable development of water resources is obtained. Selection (industrial) value added value, the amount of water consumption and (industrial) water consumption and (industrial) water use in different spatial scales and different industrial fields to verify the hypothesis of the total amount of the revised efficiency. By calculating the "saving potential value", the size of the potential value at different scales on the different time sequence, to judge whether or not to pass through The change of economy and efficiency has reached the state of water saving; from the trend of development, whether there is potential water saving ability; and whether the sustainable development of water resources is maintained if the current water saving state is maintained. On the four research scales of Shanghai, China, the United States and the world, the study shows that the water resources efficiency of the countries represented by the United States is higher and the country is more efficient. There are more water in the region. The growth rate of water resources is less than the proportion of economic growth, and even the situation of inverse proportion growth. It shows that the positive cycle of resource use is sustainable. It still needs to be further improved, and the theoretical connotation and significance of the potential value need to be further explored. This study is supported by the project "Research on water-saving social construction" (project approval number: 11JZD024), which is a key project of the major subject of philosophy and social sciences of the Ministry of Education (project approval number: 11JZD024). (Model of Natural Res Ources Utilization Efficiency and Relevant Empirical Study on Water Resources>, reported at the EAAERE 2014 Congress conference, with the efficiency balance behind zero total resource consumption growth - the "efficiency offset total" hypothesis and its validation in the field of water resources in 2014. It was published in the Journal Progress in Environmental Economics (Volume 9).
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F113.3

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